Dan Tom advised passing on Dustin Stoltzfus pre-fight and instead hunting a juicier live number once Round 1 ends. Tom thinks the current +260 to +300 money-line is inflated because the smaller Apex cage and Stoltzfus’ clinch-heavy style give the underdog a real grinding path to a 29-28 decision if he can survive the early storm. Stoltzfus has quietly sharpened his feints, kick-punch combos and transitions while cross-training at Syndicate and Xtreme Couture, whereas Ruzaboyev remains a jab-only striker whose recent camp change to Marquez MMA has yet to demonstrate new wrinkles. Tom wants bettors to watch the end of Round 1: if Stoltzfus weathers the opening barrage—maybe even gets rocked but recovers—odds should still hang around +150 to +200. That is the moment to fire, because every extra minute favors the dog’s cardio, fence work and takedown attempts inside the cramped cage. Tom still expects to pick Ruzaboyev officially, but the live-bet window on Stoltzfus is the only exposure he is willing to stake with real money.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Dustin Stoltzfus at +260 and even sprinkled the +600 decision prop, pointing to a glaring stylistic hole in Nersulton Ruzaboyev’s game. Ruzaboyev owns a 0% takedown-defense rate after being dragged down four times by Joaquin Buckley and only returning to his feet when Buckley ‘got bored.’ Vreeland argued Stoltzfus is a committed wrestler with crafty top control who can replicate that template. Seven of Ruzaboyev’s nine career losses are decisions where opponents blanketed him, a scenario Vreeland envisions if Stoltzfus chains takedowns early. He acknowledged Stoltzfus isn’t Buckley athletically, but feels the American’s willingness to ‘fight like a dog’ and maintain position makes him live to grind out 15 minutes, especially at this underdog price.