Dan Tom echoed the Ribovics side but got more specific, laying 0.33 units on Ribovics by Round-3 knockout at +750 and working him into a parlay. Tom advised that when you’re most confident in one leg of a parlay you should hedge the exposure by sprinkling the exact finish you expect—here the late KO. His confidence rests on Ribovics’ iron chin, endless cardio, and sharper boxing after back-to-back camps at Kill Cliff FC. Tom expects Brenner’s wrestling to fade under Ribovics’ body work and pace, setting up a stoppage that either juices the parlay or covers it if another leg busts.

Madlab Michael Lurato said bettors and DraftKings players should side with Esteban Ribovics to win inside the distance, predicting a knockout finish. Lurato argued that Ribovics’ crisp fundamentals and relentless volume allow him to dictate range, whereas Elvis Brenner relies on turning fights into sloppy brawls or grinding from top position. Lurato noted Ribovics never fades—he keeps the same punch output deep into Round 3—while Brenner has a pattern of losing minutes until he rallies late. The only concern is Ribovics’ get-ups if Brenner chains takedowns, but because every bout starts on the feet Lurato is willing to accept that risk. He therefore recommended KO props and labeled Ribovics a high-upside DFS core play.

Madlab Michael Lurato is backing Esteban Ribovics at roughly –260 and believes the Argentine’s crisp fundamentals justify favorite status. When breaking down film for the Ignacio Bahamondes camp, Lurato noticed Ribovics never crosses his feet, maintains perfect stance distance, blades off just enough, and delivers high but measured volume—traits he rarely sees in three-round lightweights. Although Ribovics can be taken down, Lurato rates his striking IQ and consistency far above Elves Brenner’s wild, shoot-the-box approach. Brenner’s only realistic path is to create chaos, absorb punishment, and drag Ribovics into prolonged grappling scrambles; Lurato refuses to stake money on a fighter whose win condition is "bring the f---ing chaos." He projects Ribovics to keep Brenner at his preferred range, out-box him with clean combinations, and either win a comfortable decision or force a late stoppage once Brenner’s reckless entries pile up damage.

Monk said Esteban Ribovics was “probably my first or second favourite play on the card” for DraftKings GPPs. He likes Ribovics’ relentless striking pace and finishing ability that routinely produce slate-breaking scores, and he is happy to pay the 9K-plus salary. The only concern Monk mentioned is Ribovics’ leaky defense – “he does take a lot of damage” – but with few other high-priced fighters he trusts this week he is willing to eat that risk for the upside.

Monk called Esteban Ribovics one of his top two DraftKings targets at $9,100. Ribovics lands an absurd 8.0 significant strikes per minute, more than double Elves Brenner’s 4.0, and still owns a granite chin after eating 121 strikes from Daniel Zellhuber and rallying to win. The matchup is –155 to finish, giving Ribovics bonus equity, and his relentless forward pressure has already produced a highlight-reel head-kick KO of Terrance McKinney. Monk concedes Ribovics’ 55 % defensive rate and poor takedown defense create some volatility, so he’ll sprinkle Brenner shares in mass-entry GPPs, but the main plan is to ride Ribovics’ unmatched pace and knockout upside in all formats.

Jeff Fox echoed the play, saying he is “off the Brenner train” after Brenner’s recent knockout losses left him “damaged goods.” Fox trusts Ribovics’ combination of seven knockouts, five submissions, and a perfect finish-defense record. He expects the Argentine’s pace and power to control stand-up exchanges and sees the -208 favorite as a reliable parlay anchor.

Gumby Vreeland picked Esteban Ribovics (-208) over Elves Brenner (+221). He argued Brenner’s early UFC wins aged poorly—he was losing to Guram Kutateladze before the late KO and his other victims are no longer on the roster—and the Brazilian has been badly hurt in consecutive defeats. Ribovics, meanwhile, brings fight-changing power plus cardio to throw 150-plus significant strikes, evidenced by 156 landed in the Ignacio Bahamondes war and 145 against Nazrat Haqparast. Against an opponent who ‘marches forward and eats shots,’ Vreeland expects Ribovics to piece Brenner up for however long it lasts, making him a strong money-line and DFS core play.

THE MMA GURU said he is backing Esteban Ribovics to finish Elves Brener in round two or three. Brener enters on a two-fight skid capped by a brutal TKO, so Guru doubts his ability to absorb the early kitchen-sink assault Ribovics always throws. Ribovics is a proven fast starter yet still had enough gas to unload a 100-strike combo in round three versus Daniel Zellhuber and set volume records in the Nasrat Haqparast fight. Guru noted that Brener has shown visible fatigue in past third rounds, while Ribovics has never looked gassed. The analyst concluded that if Brener does not score a shock first-round punch, Ribovics’ pace and power will overwhelm him for a late TKO or at worst a 29-28 decision. Recommended bet: Ribovics moneyline with a sprinkle on round-2/3 KO props.

THE MMA GURU leaned toward Esteban Ribovics, reasoning that Elves Brenner enters on two brutal losses—one-sided beatings from Mateusz ‘Mitak’ Baczynski and Joel Alvarez—which could erode his durability. Ribovics is a notorious first-round flamethrower who throws the kitchen sink early and owns legitimate one-shot power. The Guru once rated Brenner highly after the Guram Kutateladze upset, but that win has aged poorly as Guram slipped in the rankings. Given Ribovics’ ability to cause damage immediately and Brenner’s recent wear-and-tear, the tout doubts Brenner can weather the initial onslaught. Expect Ribovics to swarm for an early KO/TKO; betting angles include Ribovics Round 1 plus any under 1.5 totals.