Matty Betss is siding with Felipe Lima by decision after the market flipped the matchup. Talbot went from a –700 chalk in his last bout to a +140 dog here because he was taken down eight times and exposed on the mat. Lima, riding a 14-fight win streak, offers well-rounded kickboxing but isn’t the relentless wrestler who gave Talbot fits. Betss still expects a competitive stand-up battle and leans the judges due to both fighters’ proven cardio. He laments missing the opener—Lima would have been nearly +200 if this fight were booked pre-Talbot loss—but thinks current pick-em moneyline combined with the decision prop gives enough edge to fire.

MMA Guru doubled-down on his earlier Lima lean but got far more specific this time, calling for a first- or second-round rear-naked choke. He hammered Peyton Talbott’s defensive habits: Talbott repeatedly gives up his back (even on Contender Series against Tracy Cortez’s brother), walks in with his chin high, and still shows the same ‘head-on-a-line’ stance that let Haoni Barcelos elbow him at will. Guru noted Talbott’s résumé has aged poorly—regional opponents who originally looked impressive have since been exposed—while Lima already owns wins over UFC-level names like Muhammad Naimov and went five dominant minutes against Miles Johns on short notice. Although the American is the taller man, Guru thinks the actual in-cage size will be roughly 5'9" to 5'7" and that Lima’s tighter boxing and quick back-takes will flip early scrambles. Once they hit the mat, Guru trusts Lima’s Octagon-championship grappling to finish the choke before Talbott’s power can surface, making Lima ITD the best betting angle.

MMA Guru faded Peyton Talbott and picked Felipe Lima, framing it as the classic Euro circuit killer versus over-promoted American prospect. He hammered Talbott’s shaky performance against Raoni Barcelos—whose lethargic showing versus Cody Garbrandt exposed how limited Barcelos now is—and argued that both Talbott’s wins and losses have aged poorly. Lima, by contrast, held an Oktagon title, already shared a cage with solid UFC talent like Muhammad Naimov, and impressed on short notice against Cameron Saaiman. Guru views Lima as the far more battle-tested fighter with a deeper grappling toolkit, predicting he drags Talbott into clinch exchanges and wins either a late submission or a lopsided decision. He suggested taking Lima straight as an underdog and sprinkling the sub prop.

Sniper called Felipe Lima a "rough stylistic nightmare" for Peyton Talbot and will be overweight on the Brazilian at $8,700. He reminded listeners that Talbot was exposed by Hione Barcelos, surrendering 8 of 15 takedowns and nearly 10 minutes of top control while being out-struck—exactly the kind of blueprint Lima can duplicate. Lima is 2-0 in the UFC, having submitted Muhammad Naimov and out-wrestled Miles Johns (5 takedowns, +90 seconds control, plus striking edge). Talbot’s flashy 6.73 sig. strikes per minute do not worry Sniper because Lima allows just 2.3 per minute and should force extended grappling exchanges. The betting market backs that read (Lima −185, fight −160 to go the cards), yet Lima’s DraftKings salary is cheaper than his previous Johns fight ($8,900). Sniper concedes Lima’s previous wins produced only 70 DK points on average, but insists the grappling advantage versus Talbot offers 100-point upside and makes him playable in all formats, while Talbot is relegated to small GPP hedge shares only.

Bedtime MMA predicted Felipe Lima will take a competitive 29-28 decision from Peyton Talbot. He views Lima’s speed and wrestling threat as the X-factor: every level-change will draw Talbot’s high guard, opening overhand rights and pocket flurries. On tape, Talbot’s tall posture and static head led to repeat takedowns from Raoni Barcelos— evidence Lima can shoot clean entries, secure top position and ride out control time. While conceding Talbot’s length could win some mid-range exchanges, the tout expects a 1-1 score heading to Round 3, where Lima lands a timely open-mat double-leg, takes the back and burns two-plus minutes of control to seal it. Suggested bets: Lima ML, Lima by Decision, Round 3-decision prop.