Sean Zerillo makes ‘Fight Goes to Decision’ +140 but books are hanging as high as +165 (even +180 in rogue markets), giving bettors roughly a 6-8 percentage-point edge. Zerillo likes Green’s size and 6.2 strikes landed per minute to keep the pace high while Camilo’s aggressiveness creates exchanges but not necessarily finishes—both men have gone the distance in a combined 8 of their last 11 bouts. The divisional average decision line for lightweights sits near +125, so Zerillo thinks the market is over-reacting to Green’s knockout loss to Bryan Battle and two-year layoff. He is sprinkling Green +195 as well but considers the decision prop the cleaner value play, contingent on Green looking healthy at Friday’s weigh-ins after moving back down to 155.

Andy Lang tentatively sided with Gabe Green despite the Californian’s surprise drop to 155 pounds. Lang admitted the cut could sap durability—"we’re losing fluid on the brain"—yet still felt Green’s relentless pressure and UFC-level experience outweigh Matheus Camilo’s regional tape, which featured long stretches of being pinned to the mat by a 13-5 journeyman at ZFN-2. Green was competitive with Ian Garry and Brian Battle at welterweight and, in Lang’s opinion, is being "punished" with this newcomer after those losses. Provided Green doesn’t look like Skeletor on the scale, Lang plans to back him straight and may chase an in-fight live line if Camilo survives the opening salvo but starts backing up under Green’s pace.

Dan Tom said bettors should treat this as a classic dog-or-pass spot even though he is officially picking Mathews Camilo to win. Tom believes the 155-pound limit actually favors the bigger, stockier Camilo, who “used to kill himself” making featherweight and now looks like a tank at lightweight. By contrast, Green is coming back down from welterweight and Tom worries the extra cut—combined with a year-long layoff—will sap Green’s durability. Tom noted Green has been randomly dropped in rounds he was winning (citing the Phil Rowe fight) and argued that body-punchers are the worst opponents for a dehydrated fighter. Camilo’s Jose Aldo-inspired body work fits that description. Even so, Tom refuses to lay –230 chalk on a prospect “who isn’t Aldo yet” and advises either taking the plus-money on Green or passing entirely because the number has already maxed out Camilo’s perceived edge.

Michael Lurato backed Gabe Green as a bet-worthy underdog around +200 against Mathews Camilo. Lurato argued the market is overrating Camilo’s flashy Jose Aldo–inspired body attacks while ignoring his defensive lapses—when he commits downstairs his chin stays high and his head barely moves. Camilo has never been dragged into deep water by a UFC-level opponent, so his durability is still an open question. Green, on the other hand, owns a proven gas tank and has survived heavy shots in wars with Daniel Rodriguez and Phil Rowe, only being finished once in nine years. Lurato likes Green’s ability to switch to southpaw and fire a check right hook or straight left the moment Camilo gets “too body-happy,” especially inside the smaller Apex cage that forces exchanges. He also noted Green’s underrated grappling and pocket shot selection—traits that let him turn fights into ugly phone-booth brawls where the more seasoned, sturdier fighter usually prevails. Because Camilo has yet to face that kind of pressure and the line has swelled past –230, Lurato advised taking Green on the money-line at anything +180 or better and labeled the bout a classic “proven grinder vs unproven prospect” spot.