Millz Young ultimately sided with Ian Machado Garry at −130, projecting a replay of Garry’s patient decision win over Geoff Neal. He argued Garry’s 56 % striking defense and disciplined footwork will keep him off the fence where Prates’ looping hooks are most dangerous. Over five rounds Garry averages 14 more attempted strikes than Prates and already owns a pair of championship-distance fights from Cage Warriors, an experience edge Millz thinks surfaces in rounds 4 and 5. While a late KO is live once Prates slows, Millz’s primary bet is Garry moneyline with a sprinkle on Garry R4/5 or decision props for extra juice.

Kunath said Ian Machado Garry is a strong bet to win inside the distance because he owns every advantage once the fight gets past the opening burst. Garry just went five rounds with Shavkat, so Kunath trusts his gas tank and composure. In contrast, Carlos Prates has not seen Round 3 in six years and has feasted on lower‑tier, flat‑footed foes like Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. Prates carries huge one‑shot power (10 knockouts in an 11‑fight winning streak) but shows a very linear Muay Thai style and an unproven gas tank. Kunath expects Garry to circle laterally, shoot takedowns immediately, and force Prates to work from his back, sapping that cardio. By Round 3 the Irishman should be in complete control and can either ground‑and‑pound or put a tired Prates away on the feet. Actionable call: bet Garry ITD and make him a core DFS play while underweighting early‑KO‑dependent Prates.

Bedtime MMA predicted Ian Machado Garry wins 49‑46 over Carlos Prates, emphasizing Garry’s deeper UFC slate and superior five‑round toolkit. The Irishman went the distance with Shavkat Rakhmonov, mauled Neil Magny, and nearly subbed MVP, proving his cardio and grappling hold up against elite names. Prates, by contrast, is living off highlight KOs of middling opponents like Trevin Giles and has never seen championship rounds. Bedtime expects Garry to start cautiously—calf kicks, oblique stomps, long jabs—then mix clinch trips and back‑takes once Prates’ one‑shot danger fades after round two. He questioned Prates’ unknown gas tank and defensive wrestling, noting Garry is now content to be “boring as fuck” if that secures rounds. Unless Prates detonates an early bomb, the tout sees Garry’s range management, takedown timing, and back control banking the latter three frames for a clear decision.