MMA Guru picked Ignacio Bahamondes to stop Rafael Fiziev in Round 3 and views the dog price as worth a stab. Guru argued Fiziev is undersized for 155 and historically struggles with lanky kickers – something he has not truly faced since Moicano. Bahamondes will own a seven-inch reach edge and a six-inch height edge, giving him the tools to keep Fiziev in striking exchanges even when the shorter man tries to weave out. Guru thinks Fiziev’s legs and body will be available for front kicks, low kicks and a steady jab that pile up damage over 10 minutes. Compounding matters, Fiziev absorbed 170 significant strikes in a war with Justin Gaethje just four months ago and reportedly flirted with a drop to featherweight before taking this spot on the Baku card, suggesting a lighter, potentially drained version shows up. Bahamondes, by contrast, enjoyed a full camp after submitting Jalin Turner and has recently tightened his distance management, as evidenced by the backward-moving right-hand counters he flashed against Manuel Torres. Guru expects a competitive first round, Bahamondes to pull away when Fiziev’s cardio dips late, then finish a battered Fiziev with a combination that starts from range and forces a referee stoppage, cashing ITD or Round 3 props.

Monk sided with $8.2K Ignacio Bahamondes, arguing the 6-foot-3 Chilean’s 80-inch reach and relentless output (7.05 significant strikes per minute over 90 UFC minutes) will overwhelm Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev lands a respectable 4.8 per minute but sports just 48 % striking defense, gets out-landed overall, and absorbs a brutal 7.39 per minute in Round 3, where Bahamondes’ cardio shines. Neither fighter aggressively grapples—both own 85 %+ takedown defense—so Monk expects a pure kickboxing match in which Bahamondes’ nine-inch length advantage and higher accuracy (57.5 % defense vs 48 %) tilt the scorecards. The betting line is a tight –130 Bahamondes, but Monk projects 90-plus DFS points through sheer volume with late-finish upside if Fiziev’s chin wilts. He views the fight as a strong mid-tier GPP target while perfectly viable in cash given Bahamondes’ floor of double-digit strikes each round.

Madlab Michael Lurato sided with Ignacio Bahamondes at -130 and called Bahamondes-by-decision the smartest angle on the co-main. Lurato gushed over Rafael Fiziev’s ‘matrix-level’ pocket work—perfect feet, hip swivels, and body-kicks—but argued that is literally Fiziev’s entire win condition. He noted Fiziev has attempted just three takedowns in seven UFC bouts and routinely slows after the seven-minute mark. Bahamondes, by contrast, owns built-in detours: 5-inch reach edge, proven range management, a solid grappling safety valve under Mike Valle, and coaches who prioritize cage IQ. Lurato expects Fiziev to land the cleaner shots early, yet believes Bahamondes will “figure him out” once the Chilean reads timing, then control distance behind straight punches and the occasional reactive level change. Because Bahamondes has never faced an elite striker, Lurato anticipates a cautious approach that drags things the full 15 minutes, making the +140 decision prop and Bahamondes Moneyline both live. He is passing on KO props, warning bettors the matchup could look surprisingly tame if Ignacio opts for stick-and-move over aggression.

Kyzer Del Busto took the Bahamondes side, stressing three pillars: size, numbers, and momentum. Bahamondes is seven inches taller, owns a four-inch reach advantage, and is four years younger. Over eight UFC bouts he’s posting a +2.73 significant-strike differential while finishing six of his last seven wins. Fiziev, by contrast, has dropped three straight and hasn’t tasted victory since July 2022. Kyzer noted that despite Fiziev’s Muay Thai credentials he’s actually being out-landed (-0.10 per minute) in the UFC, whereas Bahamondes lands nearly two more sig-strikes per minute. With Bahamondes riding three consecutive finishes at lightweight and Fiziev showing declining durability, Kyzer likes the Chilean to out-volume and possibly stop the former top-10 contender at –125.