Paul Shaughnessy is laying the steep –500 on Ikram Aliskerov, arguing the Russian’s skill set and trajectory dwarf a fading Andre Muniz. Aliskerov’s only losses came via uppercuts from Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker—an attack Muniz rarely throws. Paul conceded Ikram’s takedown defense isn’t bulletproof but doubts Muniz, now 35 and 1-2 in his last three, maintains the explosiveness to chain-wrestle. Since submitting Jacare in 2021, Muniz has: • Spent 14 minutes on Uriah Hall’s back without a finish • Been out-grappled and rear-naked-choked by Brendan Allen • Eaten ground-and-pound from Paul Craig • Needed 11 takedowns to eke past Jun-Yong Park while landing just 17 significant strikes. Shaughnessy sees eroded cardio, durability, and offensive urgency—qualities Aliskerov exploits by marching forward with power boxing and sambo trips of his own. Because Aliskerov’s last four wins all ended in Round 1, Paul may sprinkle the KO/SUB round-one markets but is comfortable parlaying the money line, calling a Muniz upset “the only thing that could ruin the parlay leg”.