Josh Nagel recommends betting Ilia Topuria by knockout at big plus odds, citing clear logic around Topuria's path to victory against Alexander Volkanovski. Nagel emphasizes that Topuria's submission skills, while strong, are unlikely to finish Volkanovski due to the champion's historically elite submission defense, as seen in bouts against Brian Ortega and Islam Makhachev. Instead, Nagel sees Topuria's best chance coming from early striking success that capitalizes on Volkanovski's potentially vulnerable chin. As Topuria has previously shown cardio limitations in longer fights, betting on a knockout outcome early makes considerable strategic sense at +275 odds.