Sean Zerillo said he is betting Ilia Topuria to win quickly and is attacking a ladder of unders rather than a specific KO prop. Zerillo highlighted several data points: Oliveira has only a 49% striking defense compared with Topuria’s 64%, and Oliveira has been knocked down early in recent fights by Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Michael Chandler. Topuria, who has already carried his power up to 155 pounds in a previous fight, brings both a durability and speed edge. Zerillo believes Oliveira’s guard game actually encourages knockdowns, making a first-exchange finish very live. Because Topuria may try to prove a point and hunt a "club-and-sub" submission, Zerillo prefers broad time-based bets: Under 0.5 rounds (+475), Under 1.5 rounds (+130), and Under 2.5 rounds (-128). He expects any of those tickets to cash if Topuria’s power shows up immediately.

VSIN Host plans only a small wager, but likes the over 1.5 rounds at plus money in the main event. Public perception is that Topuria will steamroll Oliveira early, yet the host expects a measured start. Topuria has publicly acknowledged Oliveira will try to push the pace, signalling he is prepared to manage that pressure instead of running into a firefight. Oliveira’s most dangerous moments often occur after he survives early exchanges, and Topuria’s slick footwork suggests he will pick spots rather than charge recklessly. Because both fighters may respect each other’s finishing tools—Oliveira’s submissions, Topuria’s power—the host believes the first seven-and-a-half minutes could be more tactical than anticipated, creating value on the over.

VSIN Host advised betting Ilia Topuria by knockout instead of laying the heavy money-line chalk. He argued that Topuria owns a massive stand-up advantage: cleaner boxing, faster hands, and far better head-strike defence. By contrast, Charles Oliveira’s head-strike defence has been below average even during his title run, and Dubronx routinely needs to get dropped before his grappling game comes into play. The host cited Topuria’s back-to-back finishes of Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski—two legends who had never been stopped before—as proof of elite fight-ending power that should carry up to 155. He found the best KO price at –150 on FanDuel and suggested waiting for round-prop markets to sprinkle alt-finish numbers if they surface.

Matt Perrault laid 1.25 units on the combo prop “Ilia Topuria to win AND the fight to go over 1.5 rounds” at –125. Perrault agrees Topuria should be favored but argues the market is over-projecting an early finish. He highlighted Oliveira’s three-inch height and five-inch reach advantages (5'10", 74" reach vs 5'7", 69" for Topuria) and expects Dubronx to use that length to keep the fight at distance instead of charging forward into Topuria’s power. Oliveira has averaged 7.38 minutes of cage time in the UFC and absorbs only 3.21 significant strikes per minute, making him hard to hit clean early. Meanwhile, Topuria’s average fight time sits at 10:14 and his 4.69 strikes landed per minute are good but not heavyweight-level lethal. Perrault thinks Oliveira’s willingness to grapple (2.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes) and Topuria’s elite 92% takedown defense will result in clinch and ground exchanges that chew clock. He noted that 1.5-round totals are usually reserved for heavyweight brawls, not elite lightweights, and believes the pricing is “way too respectful” of Topuria’s finishing ability at a new weight class. Perrault still expects Topuria’s hand to be raised, but sees the fight reaching at least the eight-minute mark more often than the –125 implies.

Matty Betss moved off the chalky knockout narrative and grabbed Ilia Topuria by submission at +575 for the final leg of his "cycle parlay." Betss reminded listeners that Topuria actually owns more career submission wins (eight) than knockouts (six) and came up as a pure jiu-jitsu stylist before falling in love with his hands. The pricing gap makes no sense to him: books have the KO at –160 while dangling nearly 6-1 on the sub even though Charles Oliveira has been tapped four times in the UFC and routinely gets dropped in almost every fight. Betss expects Oliveira’s forward pressure to walk him into heavy hooks; once hurt, Topuria’s club-and-sub or opportunistic front-choke game can finish quickly—potentially faster than Islam Makhachev’s stoppage, a bragging point Betss is certain Topuria would claim post-fight. In short, Betss sees two clear submission pathways (club-and-sub off the knockdown or a guillotine/front-choke in a scramble) and believes the market is sleeping on them.

Matty Betss sided with Ilia Topuria to finish Charles Oliveira inside the distance, singling out the KO/TKO prop despite the –500 moneyline. He explained that Oliveira’s 45-fight mileage shows every time he’s cracked to the body, and Topuria is ruthless in that zone—dropping opponents with liver hooks before swarming. Betss expects Oliveira to be knocked down multiple times, noting the Brazilian has absorbed 3.6 significant strikes per minute and was floored by lesser punchers such as Chandler and Poirier. The undefeated 27-year-old Topuria owns a 100% finishing rate and sits in his athletic prime, whereas Oliveira’s long list of wars has "aged him overnight". While conceding the price disrespects a legend, Betss is betting Topuria KO because body work plus youth vs scar-tissue chin is a recipe for a highlight-reel stoppage.

THE MMA GURU urged bettors to hammer the Round-1 knockout prop on Ilia Topuria after listening to Thursday’s press conference. Guru noted Topuria slipped the phrase "I’m going to kill him in Round One" into nearly every answer and even told media that Oliveira will "wake up on the floor." Guru argued those statements reveal the same kill-or-be-killed mindset that produced quick finishes of the last two "legends" Topuria fought, and that he would rather talk about ending the fight early than field questions about future match-ups. In contrast, Oliveira spent the presser promising only an "entertaining scrap," a tone Guru framed as acceptance of any outcome rather than a demand to dominate. Given Topuria’s 14-0 record with 12 finishes and his public insistence on an opening-frame stoppage, Guru believes the best value on the board is Topuria by KO/TKO in Round 1, a market currently sitting at plus money at most books.

THE MMA GURU said Ilia Topuria holds a decisive psychological advantage over Charles Oliveira going into UFC 317. Guru noted that Oliveira explicitly stated at the press conference, "I don’t want to finish him, I just want to win," while Topuria talked only about destroying and finishing his opponent. Guru argued that Topuria’s unbeaten record, ever-growing composure, and finish-or-bust mindset create a super-power level of confidence that should translate to an aggressive fight plan aimed at a stoppage. Conversely, Oliveira’s more conservative goal of simply securing a decision win signals a willingness to play it safe, which Guru believes will allow Topuria to dictate pace, keep pressure, and eventually find the finish. Bettors looking at money-line or inside-the-distance props should, according to Guru, favor Topuria, as the Spaniard’s mentality to not just win but finish gives him the edge.

Matty Betss urged bettors to take Ilia Topuria by submission at +575 rather than chase the heavily juiced KO prop (-160). While public perception centers on Topuria’s boxing power after knockouts of Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski at 145, Betss reminded listeners that Topuria’s base is Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu—he owns eight career subs versus six KOs. Charles Oliveira has been submitted four times and is notorious for getting dropped, then retreating to the mat where opponents rarely follow. Betss envisions either a ‘club-and-sub’ sequence after a knockdown or a front-choke opportunity if Oliveira aggressively clinches. With both scenarios live and the market skewed toward the knockout, Betss called the +575 submission line “so mispriced” and the value side of the fight.

Michael Bisping picked Ilia Topuria to starch Charles Oliveira within the opening minutes and vault himself toward two-division glory. He emphasized that Oliveira’s trademark pressure—"he is going to walk at him because that’s what he does"—sets up exactly the counter right hand and left hook that felled Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Bisping added that moving to 155 lbs allows Topuria to rehydrate to 175-179 lbs fight night, erasing any perceived size edge Oliveira once enjoyed after leaving featherweight. Topuria’s eight submission wins prove he can finish a rocked opponent on the mat as well. Bisping questioned whether Oliveira, nearly 36 with 10 career losses and substantial damage absorbed, can survive the first clean bomb. He advised bettors to target Topuria money-line, KO/TKO props, or even an early-finish market, predicting the Georgian-Spaniard becomes lightweight champion and immediately sets his sights on Justin Gaethje rather than an Islam Makhachev superfight.

Joe Osborne is betting 1.8u on Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ at –180, calling it the most likely outcome of the main event. He highlighted several supporting angles: Topuria is 16-0 and no longer drains himself for a featherweight cut, coming off consecutive knockouts of legends Volkanovski and Holloway. Oliveira, meanwhile, gets dropped in almost every fight and has been in countless 50-50 fire-fights; Osborne doubts he can survive Topuria’s power if Max Holloway could not. A seven-year age gap favors the younger contender, and Topuria’s 92 % UFC takedown defense should keep the fight standing, nullifying Oliveira’s grappling edge. All signs point to another highlight-reel finish, so Osborne is willing to pay the price on the KO prop rather than lay –440 on the moneyline.

Georges St. Pierre said it is "hard to bet against Topuria," and predicted the unbeaten Georgian will get his hand raised Saturday. GSP praised Topuria’s nearly flawless skill-set: fight-ending power that has already slept Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, elite speed and precision that should carry up to 155, and a knack for landing shots opponents never see. He acknowledged Charles Oliveira’s submission wizardry and dangerous knees—Topuria sometimes leans forward—but still leaned Topuria because the 16-0 contender is, in his words, "almost a perfect fighter right now." Bettors looking for a side were urged to respect the live danger Oliveira presents, yet back Topuria on the moneyline because superior timing, accuracy, and defensive wrestling give him more paths to victory.

Dan Tom told listeners to attack Ilia Topuria by submission at roughly +500, projecting a "club-and-sub" finish inside the first two rounds. Tom highlighted that Oliveira has been submitted four times—matching his knockout losses—and those defeats came via the very guillotine and head-and-arm chokes that Topuria used to finish Bryce Mitchell. He added that Topuria’s wrestler-boxer style forces him to shoot with his head to Oliveira’s preferred choke side, creating easy grappling entries once Oliveira is rocked. The tout pointed to Oliveira’s reliance on opponents fearing his guard, noting that Topuria, a confident black belt, will happily jump in and finish instead of disengaging. Although the prop has been bet down from +700 to +500, Tom still sees value and suggested pairing it with "fight ends by submission" for extra upside in case Oliveira springs an upset.

Madlab Michael Lurato said bettors should back Ilia Topuria to win inside the distance, projecting a stoppage in Round 3 or 4. Lurato argued that Oliveira’s recent comeback wins rely on opponents refusing to follow him to the mat after knock-downs; Topuria, a confident BJJ black belt with heavy ground-and-pound, will happily jump into guard to finish rather than letting Herb Dean stand the fight up. Lurato dismissed chin concerns over the Jai Herbert knock-down, noting Topuria’s instant recovery as evidence of durability. He also highlighted Topuria’s huge weight cut (walk-around 175 lbs) and anticipated fresher legs and faster hands at lightweight. In contrast, Oliveira’s tendency to cut easily late in his career and his historically poor first-round optics make him vulnerable once Topuria “smells blood.” With Topuria’s two-way finishing ability and champion-level poise, Lurato believes the -550 favorite closes the show and the inflated money-line can be attacked via inside-the-distance or Round 3/4 props.

MMA Guru doubled-down on his earlier finish call, but narrowed it to a violent Round 1 TKO for Ilia Topuria. Guru argued Oliveira’s career-long durability issues—being rocked by Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler and even Islam Makhachev—will be brutally exposed by Topuria’s much cleaner, sharper boxing. He compared Chandler’s looping overhands that still floored Oliveira to Topuria’s "three-times better" shot selection, footwork and strike defense, noting the Georgian’s ability to shatter Max Holloway’s chin and dismantle Alexander Volkanovski. Because Oliveira must pressure to succeed, Guru expects him to reach for clinches and single-collar ties, giving Topuria tight-range hook and calf-kick windows. The short, stocky frame that hindered Oliveira’s back-takes versus Chandler will again make submissions hard to secure, while Topuria’s confidence and unbeaten 16-0 streak mean he will keep forcing exchanges even if clipped. Guru forecast multiple knockdowns—Topuria drops Oliveira, forces a scramble, stands him up, drops him again—before the referee waves it off late in the opening five minutes. He recommended betting the Topuria Round 1 KO/TKO prop or "TKO after 1+ knockdowns" markets rather than generic inside-the-distance lines.

MMA Guru picked Ilia Topuria to extend his 16-0 record and finish Charles Oliveira despite acknowledging size concerns. Guru fears Topuria may look ‘dwarfed’ at lightweight, yet trusts the Georgian-Spanish striker’s early power and unbroken consistency more than Oliveira’s notorious fragility. Oliveira has been dropped or badly rocked by nearly every recent opponent—Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler and even Islam Makhachev—so Guru expects Topuria’s first clean right hand to produce another knockdown. Unlike those past foes, Topuria is unbeaten, rides momentum from decisive wins over Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, and rarely lets hurt opponents off the hook. Guru admitted that Oliveira’s grappling threat eliminates Topuria’s usual takedown bail-out, but argued the Brazilian’s declining durability means Topuria won’t need to wrestle. He projected a finish inside two rounds and advised bettors to pair the Topuria money-line with KO/TKO props while still sprinkling Oliveira small due to plus money and Topuria’s divisional debut.

MMA Guru wagered on the PrizePicks prop of "less than 9.75 minutes fight time" for Ilia Topuria-Charles Oliveira, predicting the bout ends inside two rounds. Guru expects Topuria’s trademark early pressure and finishing power to collide with Oliveira’s kill-or-be-killed style, producing a rapid stoppage rather than extended cage time.

Danny Brasco is playing the Topuria ‘wins in rounds 1 or 2’ prop, arguing that recent history shows opponents cannot survive ten minutes with El Matador. Brasco highlighted Topuria’s sequencing against Volkanovski and Holloway: spend one round downloading reads, then land the rising left hook that detonates chins. Oliveira’s pressure style actually accelerates that kill window—he will march straight into counters instead of forcing Topuria to hunt. Brasco added that Charles still eats shots with his head on the center line, and Topuria’s Georgian-grade bone density means he will willingly plant and trade without fear. Given Oliveira’s own early-fight chaos and historically shaky damage management (dropped in five of his last seven bouts), Brasco expects a clean knockout well before the third-round bell and sees the R1-2 prop as the optimal payout on Topuria’s inevitable statement.

Claudia Bellofatto is taking Topuria to win in under 1.5 rounds at +120, trusting the Georgian’s own prediction of a first-round finish. Bellofatto reminded listeners that Topuria just iced Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in consecutive bouts after publicly calling his shots, and she sees the same ‘speak it, do it’ pattern here. She downplayed Oliveira’s record-setting submission tally, noting that BJJ usually bailed him out but will not negate Topuria’s rare blend of one-punch power and technical boxing. Whether it comes via a precision hook or ground-and-pound after an early knockdown, Bellofatto believes the challenger’s pace and accuracy overwhelm a hittable Oliveira before the halfway mark of Round 2, making the plus-money clock prop the best way to attack a lopsided money-line.

Kunath backed Ilia Topuria to finish Charles Oliveira inside the distance at UFC 317. He called Topuria “the biggest puncher at 155” and noted Oliveira has been knocked out four times and dropped by Islam Makhachev, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and Michael Chandler. Although Oliveira’s height, teep kicks, clinch knees, and long right hand could trouble Topuria early, Kunath trusts the Georgian-Spaniard’s proven ability to ride out rough first rounds—referencing early scares against Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, and Jai Herbert. Once Topuria finds range he throws 3-5-strike combinations no one survives. Kunath expects a highlight-reel KO but said a statement submission would not shock him, so the bet is Topuria Inside the Distance despite the chalky price.

Monk sided with Ilia Topuria as the rightful –500 favorite and believes the $9,300 salary is still tournament-viable. Topuria has hit the optimal lineup in four straight fights, posting 126 DK points in a five-round domination of Josh Emmett and 110+ in earlier victories. Monk stressed that eight of Oliveira’s 10 UFC defeats have come inside the distance and that he has been knocked down by Makhachev, Gaethje and Poirier in recent bouts. Topuria lands 6.3 significant strikes per minute and blends in opportunistic wrestling—3-for-3 takedowns vs Emmett, 5-for-9 vs Zalal—so an early-to-mid-fight KO or GnP finish is firmly in play. With the fight –800 ITD and under 2.5 rounds at –155, Monk projects 100-plus DK points in the winning builds. He is allocating heavy GPP exposure to Topuria while hedging with Oliveira but maintains that, outside of Jacobe Smith and Pantoja, no other pay-up carries Topuria’s blend of safety and ceiling.

Bedtime MMA doubled down on his original pick but added more detail on how the finish materialises. He warned against betting any Topuria Round-1 props, saying Charles Oliveira’s size jump from 145 to 155 will let him bully the opening stanza—clinch knees, uppercuts off the collar tie and checked calf-kicks that neutralise Topuria’s usual set-up. The tout expects Oliveira to land oblique kicks, press against the fence and even flirt with a guillotine pull in the first five minutes, which could make the live line on Topuria more attractive. From Round-2 on, Bedtime MMA believes Topuria’s reads kick in: straight rights split the high guard, ripping body shots sap Charles’s gas and well-timed sprawls force Oliveira back to his feet, where a heavy right-hand/left-hook combo ends things along the cage. Official call: Topuria KO late R2 or early R3. Suggested action: pre-fight sprinkles on Topuria R2 & R3 KO props and a plan to live-bet his money line if he drops the first round, avoiding any early-finish exposure.

Bedtime MMA refused to fade Ilia Topuria again, predicting a knockout late Round 2—early Round 3 over Charles Oliveira. He conceded Oliveira’s physicality, clinch knees and opportunistic submissions make Round 1 dangerous, but pointed to Topuria’s history of overturning bad matchups—flattening Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski—to prove in-fight adjustments and fight-ending power travel. The tout expects the classic Topuria script: maybe drop the first round, absorb some damage, then time a monster right over Oliveira’s high guard as tempo shifts. Once Oliveira wilts, Topuria’s finishing instincts (four straight KO/TKOs) will swarm. Bedtime MMA dismissed talk of an early domination, instead leaning on Topuria’s cardio, iron bodywork and relentless pressure to crack Oliveira’s historically shaky durability. Recommended plays: Topuria ML, Topuria KO/TKO, sprinkle R2 and R3 prop numbers.

Michael Bisping said he is leaning toward Ilia Topuria to defeat Charles Oliveira at UFC 317, predicting a knockout finish. Bisping emphasized Topuria's 16-0 record with 14 finishes, including high-profile KOs of Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, as proof of real fight-ending power. He contrasted Topuria's textbook, defense-first boxing—high guard, constant head movement, low base, calculated pressure—with Oliveira's shoot-box style that charges forward on a straight line and leaves his chin high. Oliveira has been dropped in past wars with Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje, and Bisping believes the same openings will be there. Moving up to lightweight should amplify Topuria's power, cardio, and durability because he will no longer be depleted by a harsh weight cut, while his strong wrestling can neutralize Oliveira's takedown attempts and keep the fight standing. Given those factors, Bisping sees Topuria as a strong betting play on the KO/TKO prop and a high-upside DFS anchor for International Fight Week.

Josh Nagel recommends betting Ilia Topuria by knockout at big plus odds, citing clear logic around Topuria's path to victory against Alexander Volkanovski. Nagel emphasizes that Topuria's submission skills, while strong, are unlikely to finish Volkanovski due to the champion's historically elite submission defense, as seen in bouts against Brian Ortega and Islam Makhachev. Instead, Nagel sees Topuria's best chance coming from early striking success that capitalizes on Volkanovski's potentially vulnerable chin. As Topuria has previously shown cardio limitations in longer fights, betting on a knockout outcome early makes considerable strategic sense at +275 odds.