DFS Army said Ivan Erslan is their favorite sub-$7,500 punt at just $7,100 against heavily-favored Navajo Sterling. Erslan owns an 18-3 record—triple Sterling’s pro experience—and logged five minutes of top control in his split loss to Iwan Kutalaba, proving he can wrestle at UFC level. The hosts think grappling is the X-factor because Sterling is a pure striker who landed zero takedowns and under one minute of control on Contender Series. Striker-only fighters rarely pay off a $9,100 tag unless they score a first-round KO, and the bout is only –190 to finish. They also cited the recent stat showing undefeated newcomers win under 40% of the time in the UFC. If Erslan survives the opening round, they expect him to plant Sterling on his back, pile up ground strikes and potentially top 80–90 DraftKings points in a decision—an optimal lineup score at likely sub-15% ownership.

Gumby Vreeland called for Ivan Erslan at +250 to hand 6-0 prospect Nabaho Sterling his first loss. Erslan went 15 hard minutes in a split decision with Ion Cutelaba and showed he can land takedowns against a noted wrestler, while Sterling got taken down three times by Tafa Tookatuckus—an 0-2 UFC fighter. Vreeland doubts Sterling’s takedown defense and has not seen him fight anyone near Erslan’s level. He expects the Croatian to chain wrestle, bank top control, and test whether Sterling’s knockout power translates off his back. Vreeland labeled this a classic prospect-loss spot where the more battle-tested grappler cashes as a sizable dog.