Sean Zerillo said he is taking the plus-money side on Jack Della Maddalena at +160 or better in Saturday’s welterweight title fight. Zerillo stressed the eight-year age gap, noting fighters 35-plus fare poorly in championship bouts, and likes Jack’s sharper boxing, sneaky power that floored Randy Brown, and head-body combinations that judges notice. He trusts Maddalena’s gas tank after watching him finish strong against Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns and believes the Australian’s damage at distance will outweigh Muhammad’s conservative control. Because Muhammad is notoriously durable, Zerillo prefers splitting exposure between the underdog moneyline and the KO/inside-the-distance props priced around +350, which he makes closer to +250.

DFS Army recommended keeping a handful of Jack Della Maddalena shares in large-field tournaments as a leverage play against the expected Belal Muhammad chalk. They argued Della’s clearest path mirrors the only times Belal has been badly hurt: Geoff Neal dropped Belal twice in 2019 and Vicente Luque iced him in 2016. Although Muhammad’s striking defense has improved, the hosts still rate Della the far cleaner boxer and the “more dangerous striker” overall, noting his 7.3 significant strikes landed per minute and 13 career knockouts. With the line drifting toward Belal and Della carrying sub-20 percent ownership, a first- or second-round KO could nuke half the field and sail past 100 DraftKings points. DFS Army will be heavy on Belal for his five-round wrestling floor but insisted GPP players sprinkle 10–15 percent Della exposure because, in their words, “if he lands the one big shot, you win the slate.”

Betss called the fight-does-NOT-go-the-distance line at +135 a "no-brainer" because it captures finishing equity on both men in a five-round environment. He reasoned that Maddalena’s power, 1.6 knock-downs per 15, and submission threat if Muhammad shoots lazy entries combine with Belal’s relentless pace— the same template that melted Sean Brady— to create far more than a 43% chance of violence. Betss emphasized that pricing is shaded toward a Muhammad decision because 19 of his 25 pro wins are on the cards, but the step up in danger level and extra ten minutes fundamentally change the dynamic. If either fighter’s game plan wins decisively— JDM landing big combinations or Muhammad draining the gas tank— Betss expects the other to wilt before the scorecards, making the plus-money number mis-tagged by at least 15 percentage points.

Matty Betss said Jack Della Maddalena is the most dangerous opponent Belal Muhammad has faced and is the correct side at +110 to –120. He highlighted JDM’s 1.6 knock-downs per 15 minutes, eight-year age advantage, and well-documented scrambling work with Craig Jones that helped him stand up from seven Gilbert Burns takedowns without absorbing damage. Betss noted Muhammad’s last five wins all came as an underdog over opponents who either offered little finishing threat (Wonderboy), were 40, or gassed/injured (Burns). Because Belal averages just 0.15 submission attempts and minimal ground-and-pound, Betss doubts he can convert control time into rounds under the new damage-first judging criteria. He has already played JDM money-line and is layering inside-the-distance at +275 plus round-3/4/5 props (16-1, 20-1, 30-1) on the theory that Muhammad’s conservative, back-foot wrestling approach will eventually be cracked by Maddalena’s body work and head combinations.

Gumby Vreeland doubled-down on his underdog call but added fresh wrinkles. He reminded listeners that Gilbert Burns could only keep Della Maddalena down for an average of 35 seconds per takedown, so the Australian’s get-ups should again mute Muhammad’s wrestling edge. Vreeland also contrasted game plans: Muhammad’s success versus Leon Edwards came from constant forward pressure, yet Della Maddalena welcomes a firefight and will meet him in the center with heavy hooks and body work. Training rounds with elite grappler Craig Jones have further boosted Della Maddalena’s confidence in both his jiu-jitsu and stand-ups. Vreeland expects Muhammad’s angle-cutting uppercuts to be far less effective against a younger, fearless opponent who throws nearly 7 significant strikes per minute and owns a +2.4 differential. He recommends the moneyline while sprinkling KO props, convinced the champion’s usual cage-pushing style backfires here.

Gumby Vreeland echoed the underdog pick, emphasizing Maddalena’s ability to pop right back up after takedowns. Gilbert Burns averaged less than 35 seconds of control per takedown against him, and Vreeland expects a similar script with Muhammad. Once upright, Maddalena’s tight hooks and relentless forward pressure should actually force Muhammad backward, removing the champion’s preferred game plan. With a 17-fight win streak and 12 knockouts, Maddalena remains ‘wicked dangerous’ every second the fight is standing. Vreeland sees huge value on the ITD line around +150 and would rather play that than rely on judges.

Jeff Fox switched late and backed Jack Della Maddalena at +155 to dethrone Belal Muhammad. The Australian is eight years younger, lands 7.2 significant strikes per minute, holds a +2.47 differential, and has finished 14 of his 17 wins. Muhammad, by contrast, owns just one finish in 20 UFC fights and wins through volume and control. Fox believes that means 25 minutes of striking exchanges where Maddalena’s power and body work can steal rounds or secure a stoppage. While acknowledging takedowns are inevitable, Fox thinks Maddalena can scramble up often enough to keep the fight in his wheelhouse. He likes the moneyline and is sprinkling KO/TKO props for an even bigger payday.

Matty Betss said Jack Della Maddalena is the most dangerous opponent Belal Muhammad has faced and is the correct side at +110 to –120. He highlighted JDM’s 1.6 knock-downs per 15 minutes, eight-year age advantage, and well-documented scrambling work with Craig Jones that helped him stand up from seven Gilbert Burns takedowns without absorbing damage. Betss noted Muhammad’s last five wins all came as an underdog over opponents who either offered little finishing threat (Wonderboy), were 40, or gassed/injured (Burns). Because Belal averages just 0.15 submission attempts and minimal ground-and-pound, Betss doubts he can convert control time into rounds under the new damage-first judging criteria. He has already played JDM money-line and is layering inside-the-distance at +275 plus round-3/4/5 props (16-1, 20-1, 30-1) on the theory that Muhammad’s conservative, back-foot wrestling approach will eventually be cracked by Maddalena’s body work and head combinations.

Gumby Vreeland doubled-down on his underdog call but added fresh wrinkles. He reminded listeners that Gilbert Burns could only keep Della Maddalena down for an average of 35 seconds per takedown, so the Australian’s get-ups should again mute Muhammad’s wrestling edge. Vreeland also contrasted game plans: Muhammad’s success versus Leon Edwards came from constant forward pressure, yet Della Maddalena welcomes a firefight and will meet him in the center with heavy hooks and body work. Training rounds with elite grappler Craig Jones have further boosted Della Maddalena’s confidence in both his jiu-jitsu and stand-ups. Vreeland expects Muhammad’s angle-cutting uppercuts to be far less effective against a younger, fearless opponent who throws nearly 7 significant strikes per minute and owns a +2.4 differential. He recommends the moneyline while sprinkling KO props, convinced the champion’s usual cage-pushing style backfires here.

Gumby Vreeland echoed the underdog pick, emphasizing Maddalena’s ability to pop right back up after takedowns. Gilbert Burns averaged less than 35 seconds of control per takedown against him, and Vreeland expects a similar script with Muhammad. Once upright, Maddalena’s tight hooks and relentless forward pressure should actually force Muhammad backward, removing the champion’s preferred game plan. With a 17-fight win streak and 12 knockouts, Maddalena remains ‘wicked dangerous’ every second the fight is standing. Vreeland sees huge value on the ITD line around +150 and would rather play that than rely on judges.

Jeff Fox switched late and backed Jack Della Maddalena at +155 to dethrone Belal Muhammad. The Australian is eight years younger, lands 7.2 significant strikes per minute, holds a +2.47 differential, and has finished 14 of his 17 wins. Muhammad, by contrast, owns just one finish in 20 UFC fights and wins through volume and control. Fox believes that means 25 minutes of striking exchanges where Maddalena’s power and body work can steal rounds or secure a stoppage. While acknowledging takedowns are inevitable, Fox thinks Maddalena can scramble up often enough to keep the fight in his wheelhouse. He likes the moneyline and is sprinkling KO/TKO props for an even bigger payday.

Paul Shaughnessy said the sneaky way to attack Saturday’s main event is the Jack Della Maddalena split-decision prop, not the straight money-line. He argued that Belal Muhammad will pile up clinch time, but modern judges—and especially the crowd in Perth—tend to reward visible damage over three minutes of top control. Shaughnessy pointed to Basil Hafez logging six minutes of control yet still losing a 29-28 to JDM, and to recent cards where one explosive striking flurry trumped prolonged wrestling. He expects Belal to land takedowns but sees JDM scrambling up quickly, throwing multi-piece combinations to win optics, and benefiting from an arena that boos every cage-hug and cheers every clean punch. Because those optics can sway at least one judge, Shaughnessy believes the split-decision prop (roughly +1200) carries far more value than JDM’s money-line in the +140 range.

Bedtime MMA doubled down on his earlier stance, locking in Jack Della Maddalena by third-round (possibility of fourth-round) TKO over Belal Muhammad. He conceded Muhammad could win the first round with at least one clean takedown and some top-time, but emphasized that JDM’s scrambling, sharpened by specific work with grappling ace Craig Jones, allows him to stand back up and reset. Once on the feet, the Aussie’s accurate jab and ripping body shots are expected to sap Muhammad’s cardio, making subsequent takedown entries easier to stuff. Bedtime forecasted the pivotal sequence happening along the fence: a reversal or trip that leaves Muhammad shelled up and eating hooks, or a left-hook on the break that sends him into a “chicken dance.” He even mentioned live submission threats—guillotine or ninja choke—if Muhammad shoots sloppy. The tout compared the dynamic to Volkanovski-Teporia rather than other grinder vs striker matchups, arguing JDM needs only one big momentum swing to end things. Official pick: JDM TKO round three, visualizing a bloody, fence-bound finish that cashes inside-the-distance tickets.

Bedtime MMA planted his flag on Jack Della Maddalena to score a late TKO—"or at worst win a decision"—over 37-year-old Belal Muhammad. He cited a 9-year age gap (JDM is 28 and entering his prime) and a 70 % takedown-defense rate that held up against stronger submission threats like Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns. In those bouts JDM either scrambled up or reversed, ultimately knocking out Burns—something Muhammad and Khamzat Chimaev could not do. Bedtime said Muhammad must wrestle relentlessly for 25 minutes because every open-space exchange favors the Aussie’s sharper boxing, power jab, and body work. He referenced Muhammad being reversed and nearly finished multiple times in the Leon Edwards fight as proof Belal struggles to absorb sustained damage; JDM, by contrast, "shifts momentum instantly." The tout expects Muhammad’s grind to break down once he eats clean elbows or a timed knee, forecasting a finish but giving JDM built-in decision equity if Belal survives.

MMA Guru doubled-down on his earlier call but added new fuel: he believes the difference in camp length and recent activity makes Jack Della Maddalena an even stronger inside-the-distance bet. Belal Muhammad has been on the shelf for almost a year nursing an ankle injury and repeatedly postponing bookings, while JDM has stayed in a full camp through the aborted Shavkat matchup and jumped straight into this title shot with no downtime. Guru stressed that Della Maddalena’s 17-fight win streak shows he always finds finishing sequences— even when he fought Randy Brown with one functional arm he chased the kill. By contrast, Muhammad’s opponents often get dominant positions and coast; JDM will instead rain elbows and chase the stoppage until the referee pulls him off. Guru therefore recommends playing the Della Maddalena TKO prop (particularly Round 2) rather than the moneyline, arguing the killer-instinct plus better conditioning will break a rusty Belal once the champ cannot blanket him early.

MMA Guru predicted Jack Della Maddalena will finish Belal Muhammad by TKO in Round 2 and urged bettors to target both the under 3.5 and the JDM KO/TKO prop at plus money. Guru argued that Della Maddalena’s finishing instincts and body-head combinations make him a completely different puzzle than the rangy point-fighters Muhammad has neutralized in the past. He highlighted several key edges: (1) JDM’s work with grappling ace Craig Jones has tightened his escapes—Burns only controlled him on short notice with one arm—so Belal will struggle to secure back-control for long. (2) The Aussie’s “escape-then-separate” mindset, shown versus Hafez and Emeev, prevents him from clinging in clinches the way Leon Edwards did, meaning he’ll reset to center and immediately rip body hooks that sap gas tanks. (3) At 28, Della Maddalena is entering his athletic prime, while the 35-year-old Muhammad has been inactive since UFC London 11 months ago and is coming off an ankle injury that delayed the booking. (4) Historical tape shows Muhammad routinely gets wobbled—Luque stunned him late, Wonderboy landed hard counters—whereas JDM keeps forward pressure even after eating a shot, out-striking bigger kickboxers like Randy Brown and Kevin Holland. Guru expects Muhammad to bank an early takedown but sees Della Maddalena jabbing, digging the liver, and forcing Muhammad to shell on the fence before a shovel hook/uppercut sequence ends it around the seven-minute mark. He called the +250 to +300 TKO line “the best violence bet on the card.”

Kunath backed Jack Della Maddalena to take the welterweight belt by knockout. He pointed to Maddalena’s 17-fight win streak (7-0 in the UFC) and his relentless boxing-heavy style that punishes the body and opens the head. While Gilbert Burns dragged Maddalena down seven times and Basil Hafez controlled him for almost half a fight, Kunath noted JDM’s ‘slippery’ scrambling and constant hip movement that lets him stand up quickly and avoid prolonged danger. On the other side, Belal Muhammad owns great fight IQ and tailor-made game plans but lacks true stopping power, elite top control, or a threatening submission arsenal. Kunath highlighted that Muhammad routinely yields position—Leon Edwards nearly finished him with elbows from guard—and rarely keeps opponents flat long enough to bank damage. He expects Muhammad to shoot early and often, yet believes the Australian’s uppercuts to the body and chin will meet those level changes and swing exchanges at boxing range—Muhammad’s preferred entry zone—squarely in JDM’s favor. The tout called the betting line ‘too wide’, trusts Maddalena’s danger factor over five rounds, and predicted “Jack Della Maddalena by KO … and NEW.”

Bedtime MMA said bettors should target Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO specifically in rounds three or four. He argued that JDM’s trademark liver hooks and rib-roasting combinations will chip away at Belal Muhammad’s one clear edge—five-round cardio—forcing Muhammad to shoot increasingly desperate takedowns. The tout emphasized JDM’s defensive grappling tools: butterfly hooks, two-on-one wrist ties, and constant submission threats that helped him scramble up against Gilbert Burns and Basil Hafez. Those sequences convinced him Muhammad will struggle to keep more than control time with no real damage. Once JDM shrugs Muhammad off the fence and creates space, Bedtime MMA expects a clinch-break right hand or ripping body shot to wobble Muhammad, mirroring Randy Brown’s collapse and Jeff Neal’s bloody loss. Because Muhammad has never been finished in the UFC, the round 3-4 window offers juicier odds than a generic inside-the-distance ticket while still capturing the projected late attrition finish.

Bedtime MMA predicted Jack Della Maddalena to defeat Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, most likely by knockout or a damage-heavy decision. The tout argued that JDM is the best pure boxer in the welterweight division, highlighting his body‐shot combinations, counter power off the back foot, and ability to hurt opponents from either stance. While acknowledging Muhammad’s superior wrestling and five-round cardio, Bedtime MMA insisted that Muhammad lacks finishing tools, has porous stand-up defense, and must control JDM flawlessly for 25 minutes to win. He cited JDM’s proven ability to scramble back to his feet against grapplers like Gilbert Burns and Basil Hafez, plus a current training camp with elite grappling coach Craig Jones that specifically focuses on stand-ups from the positions Muhammad prefers. Because JDM can threaten submissions, land fight-changing punches at any moment, and reverse positions, the analyst sees far more paths to victory for Maddalena and recommends betting on the Australian to win inside the distance.

Jon Anik cautioned bettors against jumping on Jack Della Maddalena simply because the challenger sits around +190. While praising Della Maddalena’s polished boxing and finishing instincts, Anik highlighted several red flags that make him reluctant to label the Australian a "live" dog. The 27-year-old has been out for more than a year rehabbing an injury, skipped a previously scheduled bout with Shavkat Rakhmonov, and now must make a brutal Perth-to-Montreal trip for his first five-round championship assignment. Anik also noted that the UFC’s promotional desire for an Australian champion may be inflating public perception, whereas Muhammad’s relentless wrestling and suffocating top control represent a stylistic nightmare—especially if altitude, jet-lag, or ring-rust sap Della Maddalena’s takedown defence. In Anik’s view, the number does not properly account for those contextual disadvantages, so he would avoid a straight underdog stab unless the price drifts well north of +200.

Bedtime MMA predicted a very specific path to victory for Jack Della Maddalena, telling listeners to target the ‘JDM by KO/TKO in Rounds 2-3’ prop. He expects Belal Muhammad to land an obligatory takedown in Round 1—continuing Belal’s career-long pattern of immediately wrestling when the lights come on—so JDM likely drops the opening stanza on the cards. However, the tout trusts Della Maddalena’s get-up game and clinch work to create space in the middle rounds. Once back at boxing range, Bedtime foresees JDM ripping body shots, sneaking short hooks on the break, or even landing a head-kick to finish a tiring Muhammad in Round 2 or 3. He pointed to Della Maddalena’s 12 career knockouts, elite shot selection to the liver, and Belal’s tendency to eat clean right hands whenever he exits clinches as key data points supporting the comeback TKO angle.