Billy Ward is attacking Underdog Fantasy’s pick-em slate by taking Jacobe Smith fight time lower than 4.5 minutes and Niko Price lower than 17.5 significant strikes. Smith, a multi-time All-American wrestler with legitimate knockout power, is north of a –2500 favorite—one of the biggest in UFC history. Price has been stopped twice in his last four outings and owns only 52% takedown defense, meaning he will either be planted on his back or meet Smith’s overhand right almost immediately. Ward expects Smith to secure a first-round finish—sub or TKO—well before the five-minute mark, leaving Price little opportunity to land volume. The dual pick hinges on the same game script: Smith rag-dolls or clubs Price early and the bout is waved off, cashing both the ultra-short time under and Price strike under props.

Matty Betss said to lay the juice on Jacobe Smith by knockout at -275 and anchor parlays around it. Smith owns an 80% career KO rate and pairs "massive power" with the kind of wrestling that can generate ground-and-pound finishes if the clean shot does not land. On the other side, Niko Price has been stopped by strikes in five of his eight defeats – 63% of his losses – and Betss believes the Robbie Lawler fight confirmed that Price’s chin is eroding. Given those durability concerns and Smith’s finishing profile, Betss projected the stoppage to come in Round 1 (Round 2 at the latest) and labeled the KO prop “beyond free.”

Gumby Vreeland said to swallow the chalk on Jacoby Smith even at a wild –1400 because every data point screams mismatch. Smith is 10-0 with eight knockouts, boasts an NCAA-caliber wrestling base, and has out-landed opponents by an absurd 5.37 strikes per minute across his Contender Series and UFC appearances. Vreeland noted Nico Price is 16-8 (2 NC) but has been knocked out five times, owns a negative strike differential (–0.37 per minute), and has never shown reliable takedown defense or urgency off his back. Smith is seven years younger, carries a heavy straight left that has produced four consecutive TKO wins, and can fall back on double-legs whenever Price starts winging his trademark brawling hooks. Gumby expects the first clean level change to plant Price, then ground-and-pound or a left-hand bomb in the scramble to cash an inside-the-distance ticket. He suggested parlaying the money-line or hunting the KO prop rather than paying the steep straight price.

Monk said Jacobe Smith is worth the slate-high $9,900 price tag because the newcomer has the exact DFS scoring profile you need to break a slate. In his DWCS bout Smith piled up 7-of-8 takedowns, six minutes of top control and a Round-2 finish for 139 DraftKings points. Monk expects a similar ceiling here since Nico Price has surrendered seven takedowns and nine minutes of control to Themba Gorimbo and was finished in 38 seconds by Robbie Lawler. Price’s striking defense and chin are in free fall, giving up an average 128 DK points in recent losses. Monk projects that Smith either scores a first-minute KO or racks up repeat takedowns and dominant top control on the way to a finish, a path that would clear the 130-point mark usually required for a $9.9K fighter to land in the optimal lineup. He plans to be “a bunch” overweight on Smith while keeping punt-level exposure to Price only for game-theory leverage.

Bedtime MMA called Jacobe Smith "the real deal at welterweight" and projected a first-round knockout over Nico Price. He cited Smith’s NCAA-level wrestling base plus the "gnarly KO" from his last UFC appearance as proof of one-punch power. While acknowledging Price’s crafty jiu-jitsu off his back—he once KO’d Randy Brown from guard—Bedtime MMA dismissed the threat because Price "moves around in 0.25 speed" and can be rag-dolled. He envisions Smith cracking Price with a left hook, earning an ESPN-ready finish, and recommends Smith ML and R1 KO props.