Sean Zerillo labeled Jared Gordon at ‑120 his best bet of the card and would play the moneyline to ‑130. Zerillo argued Gordon is due positive variance after two razor-thin losses that 84% (Haqparast) and 90% (Pimblett) of media scores had for Gordon. He cited a huge striking-volume gap: Gordon lands 7.5 significant strikes per five minutes at distance versus Moises’ 3.1, resulting in a +1.4 vs ‑1.3 landed/absorbed differential. Gordon also attempts 3.6 takedowns per five minutes, giving him wrestling initiative, while Moises rarely shoots and prefers low-output countering. The only danger is Moises backpacking for a round or snatching a submission, but Gordon was promoted to BJJ black belt last year and has defended 17 of 20 career sub attempts. Zerillo’s model makes Gordon ‑135 with 57% win probability.

Jim Malaro labeled Jared Gordon the week’s ultimate “parlay buster.” With the market pushing Gordon out to –155 and eager bettors trying to knock that price down by stapling him to huge favorites like Michael Morales, Malaro thinks the public is walking into a trap. He reminded listeners that Gordon’s recent success comes against 40-year-old Mark O. Madsen and cut-list Leonardo Santos, while his striking-heavy losses to Nasrat Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett exposed defensive holes Thiago Moises can exploit. Because parlay shoppers care only about shaving juice, Malaro expects Gordon to be over-represented on tickets—and to blow them up when Moises chews up Gordon’s lead leg, lands the cleaner boxing and threatens back-takes on any desperation shots. His advice: leave Gordon out of parlays entirely and consider a small Moises moneyline stab instead.

MMA Guru said Jared Gordon is a worthwhile bet at roughly –120 and likes sprinkling the decision prop. He framed Thiago Moises as the lightweight division’s resident gatekeeper—“everyone beats Moises these days”—and noted that performers who pass that test usually prove to be legitimate. Guru argued Gordon is better than his 3-5 (1 NC) recent record suggests, citing two controversial scorecards (Paddy Pimblett, Nasrat Haqparast) and a head-clash TKO loss to Bobby Green he felt should have been ruled a no-contest. Despite being submitted late by Grant Dawson, Guru trusts Gordon’s fundamental takedown defense and tight boxing guard to blunt Moises’ grapple-first approach. Because Moises rarely finishes quality opponents and Gordon routinely pushes a steady pace, Guru envisions Gordon banking two of three rounds and recommended the money-line or 29-28 decision ticket.

Dan Tom locked in 1.5 units on Jared Gordon when the line was still +115 and would bet him down to even money. He explained that Thiago Moises “is allergic to southpaws and hates pressure,” tracing the pattern back to regional losses (Robert Watley) and UFC setbacks to Bobby Green and Joel Alvarez. Gordon brings exactly that nightmare style: relentless forward movement, underrated Henzo-Gracie wrestling, and an ability to throw 100-plus strikes per round inside the small Apex cage. Tom also pointed out that Moises routinely backs himself to the fence and settles for low single-shot output, allowing grinders to bank rounds. While acknowledging Gordon’s tendency to get wild after he hurts opponents—“the guy’s bad luck magnet”—Tom believes the combination of constant clinch pressure, cardio, and volume gives Gordon multiple paths to a 29-28 decision. He grabbed the early underdog price for closing-line value but still prefers Gordon straight up rather than any prop.

Jeff Fox surprised himself by siding with Jared “Flash” Gordon, but the numbers made it clear. Gordon lands strikes at twice the rate of Tiago Moises, carries the superior overall striking stats, and has out-landed UFC opponents by 1.78 significant strikes per minute. Fox noted Moises’ negative differential (-1.62) and his lack of fight-changing power—only four career knockouts—as key reasons the Brazilian will struggle to keep up. While Moises may threaten with grappling, Fox rates Gordon an “okay wrestler” who should stuff enough shots to keep the fight standing and let his higher pace win rounds. At roughly −107 money-line, Fox believes Gordon is the rightful side and still playable as a slight favorite.

Daniel “Gumby” Vreeland said the market is sleeping on Jared Gordon because two judging blunders hide how well he is actually performing. Vreeland argued Gordon clearly out-pointed Paddy Pimblett and Nasrat Haqparast, and if those decisions had gone his way we would be talking about a 4-0 run with a no-contest rather than a 1-2 stretch. Even without the imaginary wins, Gordon owns a +1.78 significant-strike differential and nearly doubles Tiago Moises’ output, while Moises has been out-landed by opponents at a −1.62 clip. Vreeland expects Gordon’s constant pace, improved boxing and solid takedown defense to neutralize Moises’ jiu-jitsu threat, making Gordon worth backing at near-pick’em odds or as a small favorite.