Cody Saftic called Matt Schnell a must-fade at –200 and labeled the matchup ‘quintessential Dog or Pass.’ Schnell is 1-4 in his last five, has been finished in all seven of his UFC losses, and briefly retired after being rear-naked-choked by Cody Durden. Saftic pointed out that Schnell’s cardio, chin and willingness to bail on bad positions are glaring liabilities, especially for a 35-year-old flyweight. Conversely, Flick has mediocre wrestling and almost no striking, but carries relentless submission offense and tons of heart, often rallying late after absorbing punishment. Cody’s plan is to grab Flick pre-fight at plus money, then hammer him live if he survives what could be a rough first round—citing Malcolm Gordon and other opponents who wilted once Flick dragged them past the opening sprint. He expects a Flick submission but is comfortable with any inside-the-distance ticket as long as the price captures Schnell’s fragility.

Paul Shaughnessy said he is actually betting Jimmy Flick by knockout at +1200 even though Flick has never registered a pro KO. Shaughnessy’s angle is purely a fade of Matt Schnell’s notorious chin: Schnell has seven UFC losses, all inside the distance, five of them knockouts, and he was wobbled multiple times before snatching a fluky triangle against Sumudaerji. Paul compared the matchup to Jesus Aguilar starching Shannon Ross—sometimes you only need the right dance partner. He noted Schnell was knocked out by Steve Erceg and Matheus Nicolau, then choked after being rocked by Cody Durden, and even briefly retired in-cage after that defeat. Because Flick will get chances to swing in the pocket and Schnell’s durability is �shot, Paul is willing to stake a small play on the 10-1 KO prop while still acknowledging the submission is Flick’s more traditional path.

Calling the Schnell -300 line "silly," Kunath advised taking plus‑money on Jimmy Flick by submission. Schnell is the better boxer but has not scored a KO since 2014 and still shoots reactive takedowns when pressured—precisely where Flick’s slick guillotines lurk. Flick owns 14 career subs, eleven of them inside Round 2, and carries a 1.9 submission‑attempts‑per‑15‑minutes rate that ranks top‑5 at flyweight. Schnell’s durability is shot (4 KO losses in last eight fights) and his own grappling aggression often puts him directly into scrambles. Kunath sees a chaotic first round followed by Flick jumping a neck or flying triangle once Schnell instinctively dives in. Recommended bets: Flick moneyline (+240) and Flick by sub (+400). For DFS, Flick is a leverage punt with 100‑point ceiling in wins.

MMA Guru advised taking plus‑money Jimmy Flick to upset Matt Schnell strictly because Schnell's durability cannot be trusted at flyweight. Schnell has been knocked out or rocked in four of his last five appearances and even contemplated retirement. Guru acknowledged Schnell is the more technical striker but argued that advantage disappears the moment an exchange gets messy. Flick is a scrappy all‑rounder with legitimate submission chops and the willingness to turn the bout into an ugly brawl. Guru believes a "dirty fight" favors Flick, who can either pounce on a hurt Schnell or control chaotic scrambles on the mat. The tout recommended betting Flick outright and sprinkling finish props given Schnell’s historically fragile chin.

Bedtime MMA picked Jimmy Flick to submit Matt Schnell, citing Schnell’s decline and wavering commitment to fighting. He hammered Schnell for retiring, un‑retiring, and then getting "panic‑tapped" by Cody Durden, arguing that level of fragility will not survive Flick’s slick grappling. Flick, by contrast, remains active and motivated, making him the exact underdog profile that capitalizes when an opponent underestimates him. The tout expects Schnell to shadow‑box at range before Flick dives on a neck or back and forces the tap in front of Schnell’s hometown crowd, calling it "really depressing" but highly likely.