Cody Saftic labeled Gutierrez–Castaneda a classic Dog-or-Pass spot and took the +120 on John Castaneda after the bout was re-booked up a weight class. Moving to 145 lbs means Castaneda will be fully hydrated and able to lean on what Saftic views as the clear advantage—offensive wrestling. Gutierrez’s leg-kick-and-circle style racks up numeric volume (100+ significant strikes vs Alatengheili) but rarely causes visible damage, and his takedown defence has been exploitable: 4 conceded to Cody Durden, two to Kwan Lee in a fight Gutierrez nearly blew as a big favourite. Saftic also pointed out that Gutierrez looked flat in that Lee bout despite having just gone five rounds with Song Yadong, raising concerns about motivation and ceiling. By contrast, Castaneda averaged three takedowns and over two minutes of top control against Kyung-Ho Kang and enters this matchup without a brutal weight cut. Saftic expects Castaneda to mix level changes with clinch pressure, bank control time and land the heavier blows up close, turning the judges against Gutierrez’s low-impact leg kicks. Because Gutierrez fights almost always reach the scorecards, Cody suggested sprinkling the split-decision prop as well, but his primary wager is Castaneda money-line or Castaneda by decision at plus money.