Matty Betss targeted Kai Asakura by knockout at +180 for leg two. He argued the UFC is feeding Asakura a 38-year-old Tim Elliott to manufacture a statement win after debuting him directly against champion Alexandre Pantoja. Betss raved about Asakura’s lightning knees up the middle, brutal ground-and-pound "baseball kicks," and overall star power. Although Elliott has only been knocked out once and usually loses by submission, Betss believes Asakura’s speed-power combo cracks the veteran in round two for a TKO finish, making the plus-money price a steal.

Bellofatto played ‘fight does NOT go the distance’ at –125 in the Elliott–Asakura flyweight clash. She noted Tim Elliott’s 47 % takedown accuracy and perpetual scramble style but warned his 38-year-old frame and hands-low entries leave defensive holes. Asakura owns vicious knees, kicks and one-punch power—his last three bouts ended inside the first seven minutes—and told reporters he is specifically timing a knockout if Elliott level-changes with his hands down. Elliott has not been KO’d in years, yet Bellofatto believes his year-plus layoff and the weight-class’s unforgiving speed make that streak vulnerable. Conversely, if Elliott hits a clean chain-wrestling sequence, Asakura’s grappling gaps could see him tap quickly, illustrated by his lone UFC loss coming via submission to Alexandre Pantoja. Either scenario ends before the horn, making the –125 price attractive.

Madlab Michael Lurato ultimately sided with Kai Asakura even though he agrees Tim Elliott has the clearest path through wrestling. Lurato worries Elliott’s notorious ‘overscramble’ habit— abandoning dominant positions and trying to strike after landing takedowns— will let Asakura’s power boxing and especially his knees puncture those duck-under entries. He referenced Elliott getting clipped in the Ben Nguyen loss and regularly switching game plans round-to-round as evidence you cannot trust the underdog’s fight IQ for three full rounds. While calling the –330 tag "horrendous," Madlab still prefers Asakura either straight or by KO/TKO, expecting Elliott’s chaotic style to create a finishing window.

Sniper is also on Asakura but plans to be underweight in DFS and instead target the Asakura-by-decision prop, noting the fight is only –125 to go the distance and Elliott rarely gets finished by strikes. He likes Asakura’s striking edge but believes the matchup drags to the cards often enough to make the decision line the sharper wager.

Monk projects Asakura to win but questions his $9 200 DraftKings price because Tim Elliott has never been knocked down in the UFC and owns the takedown/grappling path that eats clock. Elliott, 38, could survive to a decision and still grind 35 DK points at only $7 k, making him a viable punt. Monk will be light on the fight overall, seeing Asakura decision as the likeliest result despite Elliott’s sub-defensive lapses.

Jeff Fox laid the chalk with Kai Asakura at roughly -300. Fox emphasized the seven-year youth advantage, Asakura’s 16 career stoppages, and Tim Elliott’s near two-year layoff since December 2023. While acknowledging Elliott’s oddball scrambling, Fox believes Asakura’s sharper striking and superior athleticism will keep the fight in open space long enough to pile up damage or find a late finish, making the favorite a comfortable pick despite the price.

Matty Betss said Kai Asakura will finish Tim Elliott by knockout, leaning toward a first- or second-round stoppage. Betss highlighted Asakura’s "fresh, flashy" striking, noting the insane speed he showed in his RIZIN highlight reel where knees and soccer-kick flurries produced most of his finishes. While he acknowledged those techniques are illegal in the UFC, Betss still believes the underlying hand and knee speed translates perfectly inside the Octagon. Elliott’s durability on the feet—only one KO loss in 34 pro bouts—pushes the price on the KO prop, but Betss pointed out Elliott’s tendency to be chaotic in scrambles and thinks Asakura will catch him clean when the veteran over-extends. The tout dismissed Elliott’s grappling edge because he doubts the 37-year-old can consistently ground the quicker Asakura before the decisive strike lands.