The Weasle argued that the betting market is over-correcting against Kamaru Usman. Buckley is sitting around –270 while Usman is +210, a spread the analyst said only makes sense if the former champion is completely washed – a notion he rejects. Usman has gone five rounds repeatedly and still looked durable in recent losses, whereas Buckley’s longest UFC appearance is three rounds. If Usman leans on his excellent fight IQ and systematically digs body shots early, The Weasle believes he can sap Buckley’s power and seize the championship rounds. Although he is still officially picking Buckley by third-round TKO, he labeled Usman a live underdog worth considering at the current number, projecting the true line closer to a pick’em or Buckley –140.

Dan Tom argued that oddsmakers should have this fight closer to pick-em and is siding with Kamaru Usman for several data-driven reasons. Usman owns a 6-2 UFC record versus southpaws and was winning both Leon Edwards bouts until late-fight swings. Even on short notice he arguably took rounds two and three from Khamzat Chimaev with nothing but his jab. Buckley, by contrast, is just 4-4 in bouts where he fails to secure takedowns and tends to move in straight, linear bursts that walk him into counters or reactive doubles—exactly the entries Usman still drills in practice. While Buckley has knockdowns or stoppages in five of his last six, Dan notes he is ‘very hurtable’ and that most of those finishes came against lower-tier opposition or a fading Vicente Luque. Usman’s career 97% takedown-defense rate (pre-Chimaev) and proven late-fight decision making make him the sturdier side. With Buckley hovering near –300, Dan Tom sees clear value taking Usman or at least fading Buckley money-line chalk, and he also likes small plays on Usman by decision given Buckley’s finish-or-be-finished tendencies.

Dan Tom fired a one-unit play on Kamaru Usman at +230 and paired it with 1.3 units on the fight to end under 4.5 rounds at –130 for a built-in hedge. He lined the matchup near pick’em and believes the only realistic way Buckley wins is by an early finish, calling a Buckley decision "the hardest outcome to imagine." If Usman’s inside-the-distance ticket cashes, the under naturally hits as well; if Buckley scores the knockout, the under salvages the position. Tom stressed that five-round cardio, a jab-centric style, and cage IQ favor Usman once the bout moves past the early explosives, but both men carry enough power to make a late finish live. The structure guarantees profit unless Buckley survives five full rounds, an outcome Tom ranks as highly unlikely given Buckley’s never seeing Round 4 and Usman’s stated intention to hunt a stoppage.

Madlab said the betting market is giving far too much respect to Joaquin Buckley and not nearly enough to Kamaru Usman, who is sitting as a sizeable underdog despite a championship resume. Usman has gone five rounds six or seven times in his last ten fights, whereas Buckley has never seen a fourth round. Madlab trusts Usman’s cage IQ, jab-heavy approach and full camp to mitigate the knee and mileage concerns that have followed him for years. The key question, in Madlab’s view, is Buckley’s gas tank—he has shown explosive power early but nothing to convince bettors he can keep pace in championship rounds. With Usman bringing proven five-round cardio and Buckley carrying major unknowns, Madlab believes the line is ‘way too inflated’ and is backing Usman at plus money rather than laying chalk on Buckley.