Dan Tom labelled this matchup a classic dog-or-pass and is leaning toward Kurt Holobaugh at the current +160, noting he will fire if the line drifts to +180 or higher. Tom’s logic: Holobaugh survived and beat Alexander Hernandez in a higher-paced scramble fight, carries real pocket power, and has the cardio to push a frantic third round— a profile that punishes Leavitt’s historically low striking volume. While acknowledging Leavitt’s slick grappling, Tom pointed out that Leavitt’s top control often stalls rather than finishes; if Holobaugh can stand even twice per round the optics favour the underdog. The small cage works both ways: it shortens Holobaugh’s path to land big shots and forces Leavitt to wrestle more, potentially gassing his arms. From a betting sheet standpoint Tom will either take Holobaugh straight or mix the money-line into two-fighter round-robins if the price balloons, but he will not lay chalk on Leavitt at numbers approaching –200.

Gumby Vreeland took the +163 underdog shot on Kurt Holobaugh, arguing the matchup hinges on wrestling rather than jiu-jitsu. He expects Holobaugh—who he felt deserved the nod over Alexander Hernandez last summer—to decide where the fight takes place thanks to superior takedown entries and stout hips. On the feet, Vreeland sees a pronounced pace edge; Holobaugh walks opponents down and throws 4.8 significant strikes per minute compared to Leavitt’s 2.6. Should it hit the mat, Holobaugh’s top-game ground-and-pound would rack up damage while limiting Leavitt’s arm-bar and sweep attempts. Vreeland added that Leavitt’s year-long layoff and recent submission loss to Chase Hooper raise questions about his durability in extended grappling exchanges. With that blend of wrestling control and cardio, Vreeland projects Holobaugh by decision at attractive plus-money.

MMA Guru chose Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt in Round 1 or 2. He argues the UFC’s damage-based scoring favors Holobaugh’s heavy hands and timing, while Leavitt relies on low-impact control. Holobaugh knocked out Austin Hubbard (whom Medeiros merely edged) and was piecing up Jason Knight and Alexander Hernandez in striking exchanges. Guru trusts Holobaugh’s takedown defense and scrambling, saying Leavitt won’t secure early dominant positions. Inside the small cage, once Leavitt’s shots fail, Holobaugh should stuff him against the fence and unload power combinations for a TKO.