Billy Ward said the optimal way to play Lerone Murphy’s matchup with Aaron Pico is a two-step bet. Ward likes grabbing Murphy +3.5 on the points handicap before the opening bell because Murphy’s length and striking usually let him bank the first round; in the UFC he has conceded less than 45 seconds of control per takedown, so he scrambles up and keeps volume high. Ward then wants a live wager on Pico after Round 1, expecting Pico’s relentless wrestling cardio to take over once Murphy tires from repeated mat returns. He referenced cashing the same “thread the needle” approach on Yan-McGee and believes the combination delivers positive EV regardless of who ultimately wins.

Billy Ward prefers Lerone Murphy +3.5 points at -165 on DraftKings. Ward sees Murphy’s crisp striking winning round 1 while Pico hunts early takedowns. Given the fight is -200 to reach a decision and Murphy historically holds solid cardio, the +3.5 keeps tickets live even if Pico edges a 29-28. Ward notes Murphy accepted the bout on short notice, but his technical boxing and 15-minute experience give him paths to bank a round and lose a competitive decision—a profile tailor-made for the spread market. He’ll look to flip and live-bet Pico if Murphy fades late.

Andy Lang loves undefeated Lerone Murphy at +160 against Bellator transplant Aaron Pico in the UFC 319 co-main. Lang pointed out that recent Bellator debuts have looked flat and expects a similar adjustment curve for Pico. He envisions the live line swinging to Murphy -200 after one round and potentially -500 after two once Pico feels the UFC pace. Lang is betting the current plus-money money-line and sprinkling decision props, confident the market will move hard toward Murphy.

Jim Malaro is grabbing the plus money on Lerone Murphy to defeat Aaron Pico by decision. He explained that Murphy’s camp has drilled constant lateral movement and elbow drops to erase Pico’s trademark left-hook-to-the-liver and even practiced opening southpaw so the target disappears entirely. Malaro emphasized the competition gap: Murphy has already gone rounds with Edson Barboza, Dan Ige and Josh Emmett, while Pico’s best wins came against aging Bellator names. Coupled with a roaring UFC arena that could rattle a debuting Pico, Malaro expects Murphy to stay mobile, stuff enough takedowns and edge the scorecards.

Andy Lang is also on the Lerone Murphy side, calling the Brit the best underdog on the card. He noted that recent Bellator transplants have looked “overwhelmed and out of place” against UFC competition, and thinks Pico could fall into the same trap under the bright lights of his promotional debut. Lang praised Murphy’s evolution through tough fights with Barboza, Ige and Emmett, and expects him to use superior speed and footwork to bank points while avoiding the big left hook. With the crowd behind the established UFC talent, Lang projects a decision win for Murphy and believes the current plus line will shorten as money comes in later in the week.

TheWeasle leaned toward Lerone Murphy winning a three-round decision over Aaron Pico. He highlighted that Murphy is still unbeaten, already ranked, and has repeatedly neutralized explosive knockout artists such as Josh Emmett, Dan Ige and Edson Barboza by jabbing, low-kicking and dragging them into clinch exchanges. Murphy’s style forces him to be flawless for 15 minutes, but Pico— who owns nine knockouts in 13 wins and rarely goes the distance— needs only one clean left-hook or blast-double entry to end the fight. The tout noted that Pico is receiving a promotional push (pay-per-view co-main in his UFC debut) yet faces the best opponent of his career. Because Murphy has consistently ‘point-fought’ this archetype and Pico lacks sustained chain wrestling, TheWeasle sees slightly better odds on Murphy by decision, though he admitted low confidence. Bettors looking for value could target Murphy ML or decision props rather than laying juice on the hyped finisher.

Michael Bisping said Lerone Murphy would out-point Aaron Pico in the latter’s UFC debut. He praised Murphy’s "really good footwork," high fight IQ, and refusal to quit, reminding listeners that Murphy already owns wins over Edson Barboza, Dan Ige, and Josh Emmett. While conceding Pico’s elite wrestling, Bisping stressed that cage wrestling against the fence is a different animal and thinks Murphy can neutralize it over 15 minutes. Because Pico is taking a very tough first UFC assignment, Bisping advises bettors to back Murphy by decision, noting a win would place the Englishman in future featherweight title discussions.

Bisping sided with Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy to derail Aaron Pico’s much-publicized UFC debut in the 319 co-main. He conceded Pico owns the superior pure wrestling resume—good enough to skip collegiate mats and jump straight to international freestyle—but pointed out Pico has already been finished four times in MMA, including one injury TKO, exposing defensive gaps. Murphy, by contrast, enters undefeated and battle-tested against proven UFC featherweights: Josh Emmett, Edson Barboza and Dan Ige. Bisping highlighted Murphy’s disciplined footwork, high fight IQ and willingness to fight "smart, even if fans boo," as shown in his five-round decision over knockout artist Emmett. He expects Murphy to stuff enough takedowns along the fence, exploit Pico’s striking defense and either outpoint him or find a late finish once Pico tires. From a wagering lens, Bisping recommends Murphy moneyline and believes decision props have extra value given Murphy’s historically measured approach.

Welch picked Lerone Murphy to defeat Aaron Pico by decision. He cited Murphy’s 16-0 record, eight-fight UFC win streak, and victories over Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza. Welch believes Murphy’s slick footwork and composure under bright lights give him an edge over Pico, who is entering his first UFC stadium show. Unless Pico wrestles early, Welch expects Murphy to control distance and out-land for three rounds.

Sniper agreed the betting and salary gap between Aaron Pico and Lerone Murphy is excessive and will be "over" the field on Murphy while coming in "under" on Pico. He expects Pico’s ownership to balloon because of name value and knockout rate, yet believes any Pico win likely comes by low-scoring decision. Sniper prefers Murphy’s combination of improving round-to-round volume, underrated grappling upside, and cheaper price tag. He will target Murphy heavily in GPPs and treat the pick-em prop market as mispriced value on the Englishman, fading a chalky Pico wherever possible.

Monk said Lerone Murphy is his favorite mid-range DraftKings play at $8,000 and picked him to win a decision over Aaron Pico. Murphy lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute while allowing fewer than 2.5 and still owns 60 % control time because he scrambles or reverses quickly. Monk noted the Brit’s output climbs every round, making him a nightmare for opponents who bank on early success. Pico has nine knockouts and only two submissions, so Monk expects him to head-hunt, but questioned whether Pico’s takedowns translate against the best opponent he has faced. Previous wrestlers such as Josh Emmett and Dan Ige landed takedowns yet still lost on the scorecards to Murphy, a comp Monk trusts. Because public ownership will chase Pico’s finish upside, Monk plans to be overweight on Murphy and underweight on Pico in GPPs, banking on a 90-point decision ceiling and valuable ownership leverage.

Monk sided with Lerone Murphy at $8,000 and +160, calling the Brit an undervalued "decision merchant" who just keeps cashing win checks. Murphy lands 4.5 sig. strikes per minute while allowing only 2.4, owns 60% control share thanks to quick stand-ups, and ramps up both striking and grappling output each round. Monk questioned Aaron Pico’s level of competition coming from Bellator, noting this is "probably his best opponent ever." With the fight –180 to see the scorecards, Monk expects Murphy to win at least two frames by out-landing Pico and surviving takedowns. He graded the matchup a three-star play and will have significant DFS exposure to Murphy in both cash and GPP lineups.

Jeff Fox pushed back on the Pico hype and took +156 on Lerone Murphy, noting the Brit is 16-0-1 in his career, has already beaten the likes of Josh Emmett, and carries proven UFC composure. Fox emphasized that every Bellator signing so far—Patchy Mix, Pitbull—has flopped when seeing Octagon lights, and he expects the same jitters to hit Pico, whose best career win is still TBD. Murphy has never been finished, owns seven career knockouts, and should handle the bright-lights pressure better than the debutant. Fox suggests the plus-money money-line or Murphy by KO/TKO prop because Pico has been knocked out three times.