Sean Zerillo highlighted Luana Pinheiro by decision at +550 as the week’s lone money-line underdog he projects value on. Zerillo expects a mostly striking affair—Pennington averages just 0.4 takedowns per 15 minutes—and noted that Pennington’s volume counts for little with judges because she has registered only one knockdown in 11 UFC years. Pinheiro, five years younger, throws harder singles and can mix the occasional takedown, which Zerillo says is enough to steal two rounds in a matchup he already pegs to go the distance 69% of the time (market implied 61%). He would still nibble Pinheiro straight up to +290 but prefers the decision prop for the 15% implied win probability swing.