Despite limited tape, Guru leaned Luana Santos by 29-28 decision over Tainara Lisboa. He cited Santos’ youth (25), activity advantage, and competitive showing against Casey O’Neill at a higher weight class. Guru expects the fight to be largely on the feet with both women landing but Santos sneaking two rounds. Because confidence is low, he suggested only small action on the decision prop.

Dan Tom said the safest way to back Luana Santos is still the money-line, but he is tempted to add a tiny round-robin flier on Santos by submission at juicy plus money. Tom expects a grindy fence fight in the 25-foot Apex cage where Santos’ black-belt judo trips force Lisboa to her back. Tape on Lisboa shows a stark split: competent top control but almost no get-up game—Tom called the difference “purple belt on top, white belt on bottom.” If Santos can land even one throw and settle into half-guard, Tom believes her pressure passing makes an arm-triangle or head-and-arm choke live despite Santos’ usual decision-heavy style. He is waiting to confirm Lisboa’s knee looks healthy after reconstruction, but sees the sub prop as a creative way to turn a –175 favorite into a 4- or 5-to-1 payout while still fading Lisboa’s biggest weakness.

Dan Tom sided with Luana Santos at roughly –175, calling her the rightful favorite over Tainara Lisboa. Tom highlighted several factors: Santos is a black-belt judoka who thrives in clinch positions, and the UFC Apex’ 25-foot cage should force clinches early and often. Lisboa is returning from extensive left-knee reconstruction that included cartilage grafts, and most of her taped wins came against non-UFC competition; her last bout saw her botch a head-and-arm throw and give up top position in round three against Raven Oliver. Tom expects the smaller cage plus Santos’ judo trips to neutralize Lisboa’s size advantage and kickboxing accolades, especially because Santos has already competed at bantamweight and looked in better shape during a recent LFA appearance that Tom covered in person. With the younger athlete by nearly eight years, a more diverse skill set on the mat, and Lisboa’s uncertain durability after surgery, Tom believes Santos wins via clinch-heavy decision or late ground-and-pound, recommending the money-line down to –190.

Making her his card ‘lock,’ Gumby Vreeland backed Luana Santos to steamroll Stephanie Luciano. He highlighted Santos’s 4.0 takedowns per 15 minutes and 71 % top-control rate, contrasting that with Luciano’s regional tape where she was repeatedly reversed by sub-.500 opponents. Santos has finished three of her last four wins by rear-naked choke and averages 1.8 submission attempts per round, while Luciano has yet to fight anyone with a winning record. Gumby expects Santos to secure an early body-lock, trip to the mat, and either rack up dominant-position time for an easy decision or latch a neck in the opening stanza. At –185, he views Santos as parlay glue and sprinkles the +500 submission prop for extra juice.

Jeff Fox called Luana Santos a mis-priced favorite at –143 against Tainara Lisboa. Fox highlighted Santos’ nine-year youth advantage, 2× higher striking pace and 4-of-8 UFC wins by submission, arguing her wrestling and top-control give her multiple paths to win. He brushed aside Lisboa’s 2-0 start, noting those victories came over Jessica-Rose Clark (now boxing) and Ravenna Oliveira, both of whom landed takedowns. Because Lisboa has been dragged to the mat by lesser strikers, Fox expects Santos to either out-box her at range or change levels for dominant grappling sequences. He recommended jumping on the short line now and sprinkling Santos by submission at plus money.