On Underdog Fantasy, Billy Ward built a two-leg pick’em card fading Fiorot’s strike output and backing Shevchenko’s overall scoring. He played Fiorot LOWER than 87.5 significant strikes, noting Shevchenko has never eaten 88 sig strikes in 18 UFC bouts. He paired that with Shevchenko HIGHER than 51.5 fantasy points, projecting the Bullet for at least three takedowns and control time that pile up DFS scoring. Ward reasoned that if Fiorot’s output is suppressed, it is almost certainly because Valentina is dictating with wrestling—creating positive correlation in the slip.

Sean Zerillo said he is laying the short juice on Manon Fiorot at –125 pre-fight, then looking to flip to Valentina Shevchenko live after Round 1. Zerillo expects Fiorot’s trademark blitzes and 6.8 sig-strikes-per-minute pace to steal the early frames, noting she dropped 170 sig strikes on Erin Blanchfield and looked visibly larger in that five-rounder. He also trusts Fiorot’s distance striking to expose Shevchenko’s declining output, which cratered in the Grasso rematch. However, Zerillo warned that Shevchenko carries the superior wrestling and five-round experience—advantages that tend to surface once adrenaline dumps. If the first round is mostly stand-up, he anticipates a swollen in-fight price on the ex-champ and will buy back then, effectively creating a free-roll middle.

Danny Brasco sided with an "And NEW" outcome, touting Manon Fiorot’s southpaw kick-boxing and elite 93 percent takedown defense as kryptonite for Shevchenko. He labeled Fiorot the best pure striker Shevchenko has faced outside of Amanda Nunes, highlighting side-kicks and range control that will force the champion to operate at an uncomfortable distance. Brasco praised Fiorot’s clinch knees, Muay Thai plum, and proven five-round gas tank—citing her strong Round 5 against Blanchfield where she ate a head-kick yet stayed composed. Because Fiorot can stuff shots and pick at Valentina from range, Brasco thinks she edges a competitive decision to bring France its first UFC title.

Josh Nagel said he is backing Manon Fiorot to lift the belt, stressing that her overall physicality and momentum make this her "date with destiny." Nagel noted Fiorot has "run through the competition," pointing to dominant wins over Erin Blanchfield and Rose Namajunas as evidence she is ready for this leap. While acknowledging Valentina Shevchenko’s iconic résumé, he argued the champion’s aggression and durability have slipped. By contrast, Fiorot’s size, athleticism, and diverse skill-set make her a nightmare stylistic matchup. He is comfortable fading Shevchenko as a slight underdog and will bet Fiorot straight, expecting her to outpoint the veteran over five rounds.

Danny Vithlani sided with underdog Manon Fiorot to become the new flyweight queen. He argued the French-Canadian will enjoy a size edge and owns the best pure kickboxing Valentina Shevchenko has seen since Amanda Nunes. Fiorot’s 93 % takedown defense, clinch strength and side-kick-driven range management should neutralize Shevchenko’s wrestling attack that stifled Alexa Grasso. Vithlani added that the 37-year-old champion may be slipping on the feet, pointing to a split-decision escape versus Taila Santos and her 1-1-1 trilogy with Grasso. With a hometown Montreal crowd behind her, he believes Fiorot controls distance and out-points the bullet over five rounds.

Betss reiterated his pick of Manon Fiorot but is holding off until the line flips to plus money (currently ‑120). He conceded that Fiorot’s 90% takedown defense looks slightly overrated on tape because most attempts came from smaller or one-dimensional grapplers like Tabitha Ricci and Mayra Bueno Silva. Still, Betss trusts Fiorot’s size and strength after watching her hoist Erin Blanchfield and believes Shevchenko, who was taken down three times by Taila Santos, can be surprised by counter trips. He projects the striking to favor Fiorot 60/40 but anticipates slow, chess-match stretches where Shevchenko probes for entries, keeping totals low. Because both athletes possess some offensive wrestling upside, Betss expects a tight 48-47 type scorecard and will only invest once he can grab Fiorot +100 or better, with decision props as secondary exposure.

Betss is betting Manon Fiorot to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko and may escalate his stake if plus money reappears. He pointed out that Shevchenko has absorbed 225 significant strikes in her last two fights and now leans on two takedowns per bout to mask slowing footwork. Fiorot stuffs 90 % of takedowns, is the physically larger athlete, and just embarrassed Erin Blanchfield on the feet by doubling her strike output. Betss sees Fiorot winning most kickboxing exchanges with her south-paw 1-2 and side-kicks, stuffing desperation level changes and coasting to a 49-46 type decision. He will have action on Fiorot ML (+135 was his trigger) and is considering Fiorot −3.5 points or decision props if those open better than even money.

Welch is taking the under on 81.5 significant strikes for Manon Fiorot on PrizePicks. He reasoned that 25 minutes is a massive ask to land that many against Valentina Shevchenko, who historically mixes takedowns and clinch trips to slow opponents’ output. With Shevchenko likely to turn the bout into a full MMA fight rather than a pure kickboxing match, Welch doubts Fiorot will find the space or volume to touch 82 sig-strikes.

Jeff Fox also sided with Fiorot, saying Shevchenko ‘is not the fighter she was.’ Fox pointed out the former P4P queen barely squeaked by Alexa Grasso and has become increasingly risk-averse. Meanwhile Fiorot is undefeated in seven UFC bouts, doubles her opponents’ output, and continues to improve technically. Because neither woman has been finished at flyweight—and Fiorot has adopted a more measured approach as competition has stiffened—Fox expects five full rounds. He recommends pairing Fiorot’s –140 moneyline with the decision prop at roughly +125 to squeeze extra value from the pick.

Gumby Vreeland picked Manon Fiorot at –140 to outpoint Valentina Shevchenko. He stressed Fiorot’s excellent first-layer defense and even better get-ups, noting Erin Blanchfield could not keep her down for more than a second. If Shevchenko’s takedowns fail to stick, the fight becomes pure kickboxing, where Fiorot lands nearly twice as many significant strikes (about 7.0 per minute) and owns a +2.49 differential, versus Shevchenko’s +1.16. Vreeland also cited wear-and-tear: both women are 36, but Shevchenko has 20 years of pro combat, whereas Fiorot’s 12-fight win streak has been almost damage-free. Expecting a razor-close 48-47 type fight, he recommends Fiorot by decision or even the split-decision prop for a juicy return.

Closing the Cycle Parlay, Betss played Manon Fiorot by decision in the five-round co-main, projecting a 49-46 scorecard over the perceived women’s MMA GOAT, Valentina Shevchenko. Betss trusts Fiorot’s stick-and-move kickboxing style, volume output, and cardio to win extended striking exchanges while avoiding the big moments that typically sway judges toward Shevchenko. He noted Fiorot’s perfect 6-0 UFC record, four wins coming on the cards, and believes the champion’s age and recent dip in pace give the French contender the edge in a point-fighting affair.

Betss reiterated his pick of Manon Fiorot but is holding off until the line flips to plus money (currently ‑120). He conceded that Fiorot’s 90% takedown defense looks slightly overrated on tape because most attempts came from smaller or one-dimensional grapplers like Tabitha Ricci and Mayra Bueno Silva. Still, Betss trusts Fiorot’s size and strength after watching her hoist Erin Blanchfield and believes Shevchenko, who was taken down three times by Taila Santos, can be surprised by counter trips. He projects the striking to favor Fiorot 60/40 but anticipates slow, chess-match stretches where Shevchenko probes for entries, keeping totals low. Because both athletes possess some offensive wrestling upside, Betss expects a tight 48-47 type scorecard and will only invest once he can grab Fiorot +100 or better, with decision props as secondary exposure.

Betss is betting Manon Fiorot to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko and may escalate his stake if plus money reappears. He pointed out that Shevchenko has absorbed 225 significant strikes in her last two fights and now leans on two takedowns per bout to mask slowing footwork. Fiorot stuffs 90 % of takedowns, is the physically larger athlete, and just embarrassed Erin Blanchfield on the feet by doubling her strike output. Betss sees Fiorot winning most kickboxing exchanges with her south-paw 1-2 and side-kicks, stuffing desperation level changes and coasting to a 49-46 type decision. He will have action on Fiorot ML (+135 was his trigger) and is considering Fiorot −3.5 points or decision props if those open better than even money.

Welch is taking the under on 81.5 significant strikes for Manon Fiorot on PrizePicks. He reasoned that 25 minutes is a massive ask to land that many against Valentina Shevchenko, who historically mixes takedowns and clinch trips to slow opponents’ output. With Shevchenko likely to turn the bout into a full MMA fight rather than a pure kickboxing match, Welch doubts Fiorot will find the space or volume to touch 82 sig-strikes.

Jeff Fox also sided with Fiorot, saying Shevchenko ‘is not the fighter she was.’ Fox pointed out the former P4P queen barely squeaked by Alexa Grasso and has become increasingly risk-averse. Meanwhile Fiorot is undefeated in seven UFC bouts, doubles her opponents’ output, and continues to improve technically. Because neither woman has been finished at flyweight—and Fiorot has adopted a more measured approach as competition has stiffened—Fox expects five full rounds. He recommends pairing Fiorot’s –140 moneyline with the decision prop at roughly +125 to squeeze extra value from the pick.

Gumby Vreeland picked Manon Fiorot at –140 to outpoint Valentina Shevchenko. He stressed Fiorot’s excellent first-layer defense and even better get-ups, noting Erin Blanchfield could not keep her down for more than a second. If Shevchenko’s takedowns fail to stick, the fight becomes pure kickboxing, where Fiorot lands nearly twice as many significant strikes (about 7.0 per minute) and owns a +2.49 differential, versus Shevchenko’s +1.16. Vreeland also cited wear-and-tear: both women are 36, but Shevchenko has 20 years of pro combat, whereas Fiorot’s 12-fight win streak has been almost damage-free. Expecting a razor-close 48-47 type fight, he recommends Fiorot by decision or even the split-decision prop for a juicy return.

Closing the Cycle Parlay, Betss played Manon Fiorot by decision in the five-round co-main, projecting a 49-46 scorecard over the perceived women’s MMA GOAT, Valentina Shevchenko. Betss trusts Fiorot’s stick-and-move kickboxing style, volume output, and cardio to win extended striking exchanges while avoiding the big moments that typically sway judges toward Shevchenko. He noted Fiorot’s perfect 6-0 UFC record, four wins coming on the cards, and believes the champion’s age and recent dip in pace give the French contender the edge in a point-fighting affair.

Kunath advised betting Manon Fiorot by decision to unseat Valentina Shevchenko. He praised Fiorot’s 93 % takedown defense, 5'7" frame, and physical strength—calling her ‘maxed-out’ for 125 lbs—and referenced her five-round shutout of Erin Blanchfield that erased concerns raised by a lower landing rate versus an injured Rose Namajunas. Fiorot’s nonstop volume and pop, combined with the ability to dictate range, were contrasted with Shevchenko’s apparent decline: an aging body, a long list of camps and media obligations, and an increased reliance on wrestling illustrated by her Grasso fights. Kunath doubts Shevchenko can consistently ground or clinch a noticeably stronger Fiorot, and even suggested Fiorot could surprise with her own takedown. He reminded listeners that Grasso dropped Shevchenko—something rare for the Mexican striker—and believes a bigger, harder-hitting Fiorot will have even more success on the feet. Expecting betting money to tighten the odds toward the champ, Kunath still labeled Fiorot the play of the week, projecting her to win on the scorecards and claim the flyweight title.