Sean John Lanfranca’s favorite prop is Rodriguez-Robertson to end by KO/TKO at +550. He highlighted Gillian Robertson’s improved ground-and-pound—citing her stoppage of Piera Rodriguez—while reminding listeners Marina Rodriguez landed 144 significant strikes on Mackenzie Dern and knocked out Amanda Ribas. Lanfranca believes even two clean minutes on the feet could spell doom for Robertson, whereas sustained top control gives Robertson ample elbow opportunities. He is also sprinkling Rodriguez KO at 10-1 and round-1/2 KO at 15-1, but views the generic fight-ends-by-KO number as the safest angle because he estimates a strike finish occurs over 25 percent of the time, far above the implied 15 percent.

Paul Shaughnessy conceded Jillian Robertson is the rightful favorite but still fired 0.3 units on Marina Rodriguez by knockout at 10-to-1. His logic: Rodriguez’s only viable path is a finish—she owns some of the heaviest hands in the division, and Robertson occasionally gives up dominant positions while fishing for submissions, creating stand-ups and scramble windows for a big shot. Paul flagged tape from the Lucindo fight where Rodriguez’s under-hook issues led to takedowns yet she repeatedly sat up and threw hard elbows, the kind that can swing women’s bouts. Because Rodriguez has never been subbed despite Verna Jandiroba’s full-fight top control, Paul doubts Robertson just walks to an easy choke. Most likely outcome remains a Robertson decision, but the KO number is far longer than the true probability in a cage-fight, making it a worthwhile lottery ticket in his betting portfolio.

Gumby Vreeland targeted Underdog Fantasy’s pick-em line of 36.5 significant strikes for Marina Rodriguez and advised playing the ‘higher’ side. He reasoned that Jillian Robertson’s clearest path is an early submission, but if that does not materialize the fight should extend and give Rodriguez—who averages 5.52 sig strikes per minute—plenty of time to clear 37 landed shots. Vreeland noted Rodriguez has topped that number in six of her last eight UFC appearances that reached the second round and expects Robertson’s takedown attempts to be stuffed often enough for a prolonged striking battle.

MMA Guru picked Marina Rodriguez to spring the +260 upset over Gillian Robertson, predicting either a late-round TKO or a clear damage-based decision. Guru acknowledged Rodriguez has been taken down by Virna Jandiroba, Mackenzie Dern and even prospect Yasmin Lucindo, yet stressed that she consistently survives, scrambles and avoids being finished – notably escaping several deep Dern submission attempts. He argued Robertson’s wrestling is a tier below those names and that the Canadian lacks top-pressure heaviness, so single takedowns will be harder to secure in the Des Moines full-size cage. Meanwhile Rodriguez’s striking edge is massive: once she lands a few clean combinations she enters a “flow state,” increasing volume and making Robertson’s level-change entries obvious. Guru noted Robertson owns the most submission wins in women’s UFC history, but called her “so bad on the feet” that she will fall behind quickly. Because judges reward damage first, and Rodriguez has five-round experience, Guru advised taking Rodriguez moneyline and sprinkling the Round 3 or decision props.

Bedtime MMA flagged Marina Rodriguez as a 2-to-1 underdog worth a swing versus Gillian Robertson. He argued Robertson’s favorite status is based on beating “jobbers”— Michelle Waterson, Luana Pinheiro— and she even lost to Tabatha Ricci. Rodriguez, meanwhile, only drops razor decisions to top-5 strawweights like Jessica Andrade and Lucindo. With the Brazilian’s more complete striking-plus-takedown-defense toolkit, the tout expects Rodriguez to stuff enough shots and out-point Robertson for an upset decision.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Marina Rodriguez at +260, calling the number "way too wide" because Robertson’s offensive wrestling still lags behind her submission skills. He reminded listeners that Rodriguez stuffed four of seven shots from Virna Jandiroba— an elite wrestler who just mauled Xiaonan Yan— and survived more than a dozen grappling sequences with Mackenzie Dern over 25 minutes without being tapped. Rodriguez has never been submitted in 24 pro bouts and has only been KO’d once. Vreeland doubts Robertson can consistently get her down and, if she does, keep her there long enough to work a finish. On the feet Rodriguez lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute and carries a +1.60 differential, numbers Robertson (2.83 landed, –0.06 differential) cannot match. If takedowns are neutralized, Gumby predicts Rodriguez out-points the Canadian and cashes as a live dog.