Andy Lang said the one bet we will kick ourselves for missing is the Over/‘Fight Goes the Distance’ in Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen. Lang reminded listeners that Vettori is an automatic scorecard magnet—nine of his last ten MMA bouts (plus a grappling match) have gone to decision because of his granite chin and low-risk style. He rattled off Vettori’s recent record, stressing the Italian has not been finished since 2014 and rarely finishes anyone himself. While Jim Malaro previously mentioned Allen’s submission upside, Lang countered that Allen’s own gas tank often fades in rounds two and three, making a late tap unlikely. With neither man likely to get knocked out or subbed, Lang expects a typical Vettori slog and views any plus money on the fight to go the full 15 minutes—or alternate Overs—as a ‘woulda, coulda, shoulda’ wager that bettors will regret passing on.

Andy Lang said he is not really "betting on" Brendan Allen so much as he is betting against Marvin Vettori. Lang compared Vettori’s recent movement to a stationary extra in an old Tom Cruise boxing movie, arguing the Italian no longer has the athletic pop that once made his pressure style work. He pointed to Vettori getting walked down by Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze, the lingering effects of a major shoulder surgery, and the fighter’s own admission that his downtime was spent partying in Miami. Lang added that Vettori is juggling personal issues outside the cage that could further sap focus. Because Lang believes washed veterans rarely regain quick-twitch explosiveness "unless they jump on the Barcelos vitamin plan," he is eager to fade Vettori wherever plus-money is available on Allen or derivative props like Allen decision/submission.

Monk was shocked to see Brendan Allen sitting at –205 and the fight –270 to go the distance, calling it "Vettori or bust" on the betting window. He argued Allen is not a relentless chain wrestler and Vettori is no easy mark on the mat, making the Italian’s dog price attractive in both DFS ($7,400) and straight wagers. Because a grinding decision is the likeliest outcome, Monk believes Allen’s $8,800 salary is dead money relative to higher-ceiling favorites, whereas Vettori can pay off with even a modest 70-point decision win that frees salary for 9K studs elsewhere.

Danny Brasco tabbed Marvin Vettori as a live underdog (+180) against Brendan Allen. Although Vettori’s porous boxing defense has been criticized, Brasco emphasized the Italian’s granite chin, forward pressure and recently improved offensive boxing. He sees vulnerabilities in Allen’s recent form—close split-decision tendencies, late-fight cardio dips and accumulated damage—that Vettori can exploit by marching forward and forcing heavy exchanges. Brasco also believes an emotional edge exists: Vettori is dedicating the fight to his late brother, potentially unlocking a higher aggression level that could sway tight rounds or even produce a finish.

While leaning toward Brendan Allen, Dan Tom told listeners not to ignore the plus-200 opener on Marvin Vettori if it resurfaces. Tom argued that any number at +200 or longer automatically bakes in Vettori’s elite durability, southpaw awkwardness and potential to bank rounds with clinch control and volume jabs. Although he questions Vettori’s recent tactical choices—fighting off the back foot instead of pressuring and wrestling—Tom noted the Italian has never been finished, owns a granite chin, and could make the fight ugly enough to sway two of the three judges. He framed the wager strictly as a ‘small stab for value hunters,’ recommending bankroll management but acknowledging that two-to-one or better is a historically profitable threshold for a fighter who almost always hears the scorecards and keeps exchanges close.

Dan Tom said his favorite angle for the middle-weight co-main is the Over 2.5 Rounds prop, currently sitting around –285 and still parlay-able at –155 when paired with other spots. Tom noted Allen owns an 8-2 record against southpaws, yet half of those wins were grappling-heavy affairs, making the strike-to-strike handicap murky. Instead of forcing a side, he expects a lot of clinch jockeying, level-change feints and pawing jabs that bleed clock because neither man likes the other and both respect the other’s durability. Vettori has never been stopped in 12 UFC fights, while Allen—despite having more finishing tools— has only been finished once since 2018 and is coming in visibly leaner after a camp with Belal Muhammad. Tom referenced the classic ‘bad-blood stare-down’ trend (Rampage–Rashad, Usman–Masvidal I) where personal animus often produces a slower, safer fight. He staked 2.64 units to win 1.70 on the over and rolled it into a small parlay with Kevin Holland, projecting at least 13 minutes of cage time roughly 70% of the time.

Kunath advised taking plus money on Marvin Vettori in what he calls a coin-flip middleweight bout. He pointed out that Brendan Allen’s win condition is almost always top-position grappling—eight of his last nine victories came when he logged two or more takedowns or secured back control—but Vettori owns an 80 % takedown-defense rate and has never been submitted or finished in 15 UFC appearances. On the feet Vettori averages 4.38 significant strikes landed per minute to Allen’s 3.71 and has a better chin, having never been knocked down; Allen has been knocked out by both Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland. Kunath conceded Vettori’s power is “pillow-fisted” yet expects him to stuff enough shots, march forward, and touch Allen with southpaw jabs and left hooks. Because Vettori tends to win close rounds while judges reward Allen’s back-takes, Kunath forecasted a razor-thin fight that likely goes to a split decision, siding with Vettori’s durability and defensive wrestling for the upset.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed the +185 underdog tag on Marvin Vettori, arguing that the Italian’s grinding wrestling and pressure boxing are kryptonite for Brendan Allen. Vreeland noted Allen surrendered seven takedowns to Jacob Malkoun and was out-struck in both meetings with Chris Curtis, underscoring weaknesses that Vettori can replicate with his 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and 59% accuracy. While Allen boasts superior pure jiu-jitsu, Vreeland emphasized he is not the better wrestler; Vettori has stuffed 75% of opponent shots and has never been submitted. He also reminded listeners that Vettori’s only recent losses are to elite contenders—Adesanya, Whittaker, Cannonier—whereas Allen arguably lost a split to Curtis. With better control positions and a cardio edge that historically carries him through hard 15-minute battles, Vreeland believes Vettori wins minutes and cashes as a live dog.