Jeff Fox recommended Mateusz Rebecki at -198 versus Chris Duncan (+180). Rebecki sports a 20-2 record with a 16-1 run over his last 17 bouts, plus nine KOs and seven subs. Fox highlighted the Pole’s superior striking metrics and high-level grappling résumé— including a competitive match with Mateusz Gamrot— and thinks that experience will neutralize Duncan’s recent guillotine-choke spree. Expect Rebecki to win the wrestling exchanges, control position, and land enough damage to justify the chalk in straight bets or parlays.

Gumby Vreeland also backed Rebecki, warning that Chris Duncan has fallen in love with jumping guillotines after two wins by the choke. Vreeland likened it to Gabriel Gonzaga abandoning jiu-jitsu after head-kicking Mirko Cro Cop and said that choice plays straight into Rebecki’s hands. The Polish lightweight has 22 fights of guillotine defense experience and rarely tires while grappling. Vreeland expects Duncan to hand Rebecki top position, from which the favorite can ride out dominant control or find a finish, making the chalk worth laying.

Monk is “huge on Rebecki” and expects him to dominate Chris Duncan everywhere. He cited Rebecki’s statistical edges: landing well over five significant strikes a minute in the early rounds, a takedown rate that jumps to 48 % in round three, and control time that doubles late. Rebecki has already out-grappled tougher competition, including Mikhtabek Oralbay, while Duncan’s defensive numbers are, in Monk’s words, “kind of suspect.” Monk sees a high-floor, high-ceiling DFS play worthy of heavy exposure in all formats.

Kunath recommended betting Mateusz Rebecki by knockout over Chris Duncan. He pointed to Duncan’s shaky chin— rocked by Charlie Campbell on Contender Series and finished by Manuel Torres— and stated Rebecki throws the heavier hands while happily walking through fire. Rebecki can shoot takedowns at will, neutralising Duncan’s signature guillotine that Kunath believes seldom finishes high-level grapplers. With more power, forward pressure and the wrestling ace in his pocket, Rebecki “has more ways to win” and should end matters early; market money is already coming his way.

THE MMA GURU predicted Mateusz Rebecki scores a first-round TKO over Chris Duncan. Duncan’s recent wins came via opportunistic guillotines, but Guru argued Rebecki’s stocky, no-neck frame makes that choke unlikely. Rebecki has tightened his cardio since fading against Carlos Diego Ferreira—he managed pace far better in the Matek Orobley bout—and brings a 19-2 record plus legitimate one-punch power. The tout expects the southpaw’s faster hands and cleaner footwork to light Duncan up on the feet; despite training at ATT, Duncan still absorbs big shots every fight. Guru thinks Rebecki’s compact power will crack the Scot early and end it inside five minutes. Suggested wagers: Rebecki moneyline and KO-1 prop.