Gumby Vreeland echoed the Camilo pick, stressing that the rookie’s hand speed and one-shot power are a nightmare for Gabe Green, whose timing may be compromised after a long medical hiatus. Vreeland noted Green was ‘sparked’ in his last fight and believes the cumulative damage, coupled with Camilo’s sharp boxing, sets up another knockout. Even if Green tries to wrestle, Vreeland trusts Camilo’s ‘crafty when it hits the mat’ submission arsenal, highlighted by flying triangles and front-head attacks on the regional circuit. With Camilo also entering on a six-fight heater and debuting without the short-notice caveats that often sink newcomers, Vreeland expects a statement win—most likely by KO but live for a slick tap-out as well.

Jeff Fox sided with UFC newcomer Matheus Camilo, arguing the Brazilian’s blend of fast-twitch power and tricky submission offense overwhelms Gabe Green. Fox pointed out Green is returning from a two-year layoff after being brutally knocked out in May 2023 and has been finished in three of his five UFC appearances. That combination of cage rust and a historically leaky striking defense (absorbs 6.2 SS per minute) makes Green a perfect target for Camilo, who rides a six-fight win streak and is eight years younger. Fox added that Camilo has generated highlight-reel knockouts on the regional scene and owns several inventive grappling finishes, giving him multiple paths to victory versus a fighter who has been both knocked out and submitted in the Octagon.

Sniper said Matheus Camilo is a priority DraftKings play at $8,600, calling Camilo-Green a top-four exposure fight on the slate. The betting market has Camilo –230 with the Inside-the-Distance prop at –170, and Sniper expects a finish. His confidence stems more from fading Gabe Green than hyping Camilo: Green is 1-2 in his last three, has been knocked down in each of those bouts, and was out-landed 11.6 to 8.5 significant strikes per minute by Daniel Rodriguez. Green’s ‘scrapper’ label now comes with a compromised chin, and he is winless (0-2) when priced as an underdog. Camilo, though inactive for two years, owns six regional finishes (four KO, two SUB) and is the younger, fresher athlete. Sniper will be overweight on both sides for GPP leverage but projects 95-plus DK points for a Camilo stoppage and wants the Brazilian in the majority of his tournament lineups.