Joe Osborne backed Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision at -163 and told listeners he would bet it down to -199. Osborne pointed to the first meeting less than a year ago when Dvalishvili landed six takedowns, banked more than 10 minutes of control time and out-struck Sean O'Malley by 45 significant strikes. Dvalishvili has gone to the judges in 10 of his last 11 victories, so Osborne expects the same smothering wrestling and cardio-driven game plan to cash another decision ticket at UFC 316.

Michael Bisping said bettors should back Merab Dvalishvili to retain his bantamweight title in the UFC 316 main-event rematch with Sean O'Malley. Bisping highlighted Dvalishvili's suffocating pace and chain-wrestling—he fired double-digit takedown attempts per round in their first meeting at UFC 306—and a bottomless gas tank that still had him shooting in the fifth. Since then the champ out-grappled previously unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov, flashing faster hands and growing confidence. Bisping added that Merab’s stocky frame and thick neck let him absorb the long-range strikes O'Malley depends on. O'Malley has cleaned up his lifestyle, fixed a torn labrum, and promises better cardio, but Bisping sees the same stylistic nightmare: Dvalishvili walking him down, pinning him to the fence, and grinding out another decision. He called Merab a solid straight bet or parlay anchor on DraftKings.

Bedtime MMA sided with Merab Dvalishvili to win a 48-47 decision over Sean O'Malley at UFC 316. He forecasted that O'Malley would rock or drop Merab once—likely with a clean right hand or body shot in Round 2—but stressed that Merab’s relentless, chaotic style wins minutes even when takedowns fail. The tout projected O'Malley to stuff roughly 70 percent of attempts yet still get pinned against the fence where Merab will fire short punches and rack up optics. Dvalishvili’s trademark pace and cardio should let him steal Rounds 1, 3 and 5, while sporadic level-change feints add enough striking success to sway judges. Because O'Malley tends to fight cautiously once fatigue sets in, Bedtime MMA doubts he has late knockout power and sees submission as his only finishing path. Recommended wager: Dvalishvili by decision, banking on volume, clinch control and “emoting” to neutralize the champion’s slick striking.

Kyzer Del Busto recommended backing Dvalishvili at –275, calling this a "rinse-and-repeat" of November’s one-sided wrestle-fest. He pointed to Merab’s 3-inch reach disadvantage being irrelevant because the Georgian closes distance instantly and chains shots until he’s on a leg. O’Malley’s lone hope, per Kyzer, is that the torn-hip-labrum surgery magically fixed his 63% takedown-defense problem, yet the challenger refused any interim fight to prove it. Meanwhile Merab has out-landed foes by 1.85 strikes per minute while logging 66 takedowns in 14 UFC bouts. Unless the surgery turned Sugar into Jose Aldo overnight, Kyzer sees another five-round grind and advises parlaying the champ with other chalk.

Gumby said to lay the –275 on Merab Dvalishvili because nothing in Sean O’Malley’s layoff-filled camp suggests he fixed the fatal flaw from the first meeting. O’Malley went straight from hip-labrum surgery into an immediate rematch without a tune-up bout to test his wrestling, and Gumby doubts a few months of drilling can erase the 11 takedowns and 12:41 of top control Merab logged last time. Dvalishvili is on a 12-fight UFC win streak, averages 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes, owns a World Sambo silver medal, and has never been finished. Gumby projected "10–15 takedowns and another lopsided decision," adding that he will be smashing any Underdog Fantasy or book prop that posts an "over" on Merab’s takedowns.