The Weasle said Michael Kiesa’s length, superior chain-wrestling and slick top game should overwhelm fellow veteran Court McGee, forecasting a third-round choke finish. Kiesa is the noticeably bigger welterweight and the better pure grappler; McGee’s jab and pressure could unsettle him—similar to what Kevin Holland did—but McGee lacks Holland’s knockout pop. Expect Kiesa to circle on athleticism rather than textbook defense, time reactive shots once McGee overcommits, and then dominate the scrambles. The analyst envisions Kiesa trapping an arm-triangle or taking the back for a rear-naked choke after wearing McGee out with positional control.

Gumby Vreeland’s favorite prop on the card is Michael Chiesa by submission at +200 versus Court McGee. Vreeland expects Chiesa’s relentless clinch pressure to sap the 39-year-old McGee’s gas tank, eventually forcing the veteran into a desperate shot. From there Chiesa’s specialty front-headlock series—guillotines, anacondas and brabo chokes—should finish the job. He reminded listeners that McGee has been caught in similar positions before and lacks the athletic explosiveness to scramble once Chiesa latches on. With Chiesa owning 11 career subs and only two decision wins, Vreeland views +200 as generous compared to the money-line.

THE MMA GURU likes Michael Chiesa to submit Court McGee in the opening half of the fight. He argued the UFC is giving Chiesa a ‘peaches-and-cream’ run of stylistically friendly opponents—Max Griffin, Tony Ferguson at 170, and now McGee, who is pushing his 40s. Chiesa’s A-game is a single-leg to backpack transition that aging, less explosive welterweights have struggled with for years. Guru pointed out that McGee’s near-losses to grapplers like Sean Brady and his grinding style make him especially vulnerable once Chiesa secures back control. Expect an early takedown, hooks in, and a rear-naked choke before Round 2 is over. Bettors should look at Chiesa by submission or Chiesa Round 1/2 props rather than the pricey moneyline.

Dan Tom said he is "pulling the trigger" on a two-leg parlay that pays roughly –102. Leg one is Michael Chiesa’s money-line (around –380) because Tom expects Chiesa’s chain-wrestling and rear-naked-choke threat to overwhelm Court McGee, who owns just 65 % takedown defense and has repeatedly shown vulnerabilities against southpaw grapplers. Leg two is the Under 1.5 rounds in Mansur Abdul Malik vs Cody Brundage, a total Tom already likes due to both fighters’ seven-minute finish histories—six of Malik’s eight bouts and nine of Brundage’s last twelve have ended inside that window. By pairing Chiesa’s grind-heavy favorite side with a volatility-driven total, Tom turns two chalky pieces into an even-money bet he feels comfortable staking "a little north of 1.5 units" on. He views the construction as a low-risk way to get exposure to two matchups where stylistic data supports quick resolution or dominant wrestling, without laying huge straight-price juice.

Dan Tom said he is adding Michael Chiesa by submission to his weekly round-robin card and may pair Chiesa’s money-line with the fight Under for a near-even payout he quoted at –102. Tom likes the gambit because Court McGee’s neck has been an issue, and Chiesa’s entire game revolves around forcing a body-triangle and hunting rear-naked chokes (nine career RNC attempts). McGee is a respectable 4-3 against southpaws but routinely “gets pieced up” by them and has never faced a wrestler-grappler of Chiesa’s caliber. Tom argued that toughness will not save McGee once the choke is in—“you’re either tapping or going out.” If Chiesa finishes early the Under hits, and if Chiesa simply controls for three rounds the money-line half of the parlay still cashes. Either way, Tom believes the submission prop delivers far more value than laying –380 chalk on Chiesa straight.

Madlab conceded he loves Court McGee’s redemption story but still sided with Michael Chiesa at –380 because styles make mismatches. Chiesa shoots early and often—averaging 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes—and never pretends he is a striker. McGee’s 65 % takedown defense and 39-year-old reflexes mean he will spend the fight backing up and hand-fighting single legs, not winning minutes. Madlab trusts Chiesa’s downhill chain-wrestling and elite back-take game (nine career rear-naked-choke attempts) to bank control time, even if he does not find the finish. McGee’s only realistic path is to stuff a few shots and turn it into a high-volume kickboxing match, but Chiesa’s 6-inch reach and double-leg commitment should snuff that out. Madlab hates the juice yet calls it warranted, hinting at a live bet on McGee only if Chiesa bizarrely refuses to wrestle.