Millz Young jumped on Michel Pereira after the number slid from −160 to −135, calling it the best value spot on the card. Pereira is 3-1 since moving up, mixes spinning kicks, calf kicks, and level-changing takedowns, and routinely out-paces opponents with 5.3 strikes per minute. Millz thinks Abus Magomedov is a pure power boxer who fades once his Plan A is neutralized and pointed to Abus landing only 14 total strikes in the final eight minutes of the Strickland fight as proof. Because Pereira carries the better cardio, more offensive wrestling, and a wider striking arsenal, Millz is comfortable parlaying Pereira moneyline or playing him by decision at nearly +200.

Gumby Vreeland said the best way to bet Michel Pereira this week is the +800 submission prop rather than the -135 moneyline. Vreeland noted Abus Magomedov has faded hard in multiple fights, pointing to the Sean Strickland bout where Magomedov was running on fumes minutes into Round 2. Pereira, who averages 12.8 significant-strike attempts per minute, weaponizes pace and historically jumps on guillotines and face-cranks once opponents are hurt (three submissions in his last five wins). Vreeland expects Magomedov to wrestle early, gas himself out, eat a big shot, and leave his neck exposed for Pereira to club-and-sub in the second round. He advised sprinkling the 8-to-1 submission ticket or using it as a long-shot hedge on Pereira parlays.

Paul Shaughnessy echoed Cody’s skepticism of Abus Magomedov but added several wrinkles that pushed him toward a finish-prop rather than simply the –140 money-line. Paul noted Abus’s two best wrestling showings came against undersized middleweights—Warlley Alves and Brunno Ferreira—both of whom Magomedov was able to lay on when his gas tank dipped. He doubts that strategy works on the 'enormous, shredded' Pereira, who stuffed early shots from cardio monster Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and repeatedly scrambled up despite being taken down ten times. Shaughnessy stressed Pereira’s power still translates at 185, citing the 61-second KO of Andre Petroski and nearly flooring Hernandez in Round 1. Because Abus visibly slowed after four minutes against Sean Strickland and even huffed through the Alves and Ferreira bouts, Paul expects him to “crumple over” from exhaustion, opening Pereira’s flying knees, spinning kicks, or overhand right. He recommended chasing Pereira inside-the-distance or KO props, arguing that Abus’s only viable path—wrestling for 15 minutes—will itself accelerate the cardio collapse.

Cody Saftic picked Michel Pereira at –140 and is chasing the knockout prop, arguing Abus Magomedov’s durability and gas tank are nowhere near UFC level. Cody rattled off Magomedov’s regional stumbles—KOs by 39-year-old Lewis Taylor, losses to Andrea Stahl and Mikael Parlo—and said even in victory Abus rarely shows elite wrestling or cardio. The German-Dagestani wilted after a good opening round against Sean Strickland and has been finished in 39 seconds on the regional scene. Pereira, now calmer but still explosive, has shown increasingly efficient boxing and owns the better five-minute output (4.16 sig. strikes landed per minute). Cody believes Pereira’s power punches or flying knees will find Abus’ suspect chin inside two rounds; he recommended the KO (or RD1/RD2) markets for bettors hunting violence.

Kunath said this is a classic buy‑low spot on Michel Pereira after the one‑sided loss to Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. He argued Pereira still owns every skill edge here: he dictates where fights take place, carries a granite chin, mixes body kicks with switch‑stance boxing, and owns underrated defensive wrestling. Abus Magomedov briefly quieted the cardio narrative by finishing Bruno Silva in Round 3, but Kunath noted Silva’s corner and the referee bailed him out there. Against Sean Strickland, Magomedov gassed out in five minutes and offered little when takedowns were stuffed. Kunath does not believe Magomedov can ground Pereira even once, and at kickboxing range Pereira’s speed, variety, and shot selection make this a mismatch. Because Magomedov is likely a step up from recent Pereira victims, Kunath expects Abus to survive but lose every round. Actionable call: bet Pereira by decision (+185 range) and plug him into balanced DFS builds where a 15‑minute striking clinic scores well without expensive salary risk.