Matty Betss is firing on Michel Pereira Round-1 Submission, available between +900 and +1100 at open. He reminded viewers that seven of Pereira’s last nine finishes have come via choke immediately after hurting opponents—Zelim Imadaev, André Fialho and four pre-UFC foes all tapped without hooks even secured. Matty doubts Abus Magomedov’s defensive jiu-jitsu, pointing to Fluffy Hernandez choking him once exhaustion set in and to multiple regional scenes taps under pressure. Pereira enters his second fight at 185 with the cut no longer draining him and still brandishing that blitzing right hand. The plan: force Magomedov to bail on a bad shot, jump the neck, cash early. Matty will ladder a small stake on R1 sub and a larger inside-the-distance bet, passing on the pick-em money-line altogether.

Andy Lang doubled down on Pereira, predicting a round-3 KO after Abus’ trademark cardio dump. Lang reminded listeners that Pereira just survived 25 minutes of suffocating chain-wrestling from Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and still got back to his feet nine of 12 times—something Abus, who shoots single-layer doubles, simply can’t replicate. Once Abus’ power fades, Lang expects Pereira to mix in his own offensive wrestling, force scrambles, and unload the spinning elbows and front-kicks he now uses more selectively. Lang highlighted Magomedov’s 38-percent striking defense and the fact he has been rocked in three straight fights. He is betting Pereira inside-the-distance (+140) and laddering round 3/4 props for a bigger payday, cautioning that the money line is moving fast as sharps fade the “one-round fighter.”

Jim Malaro called the current Michel Pereira price a steal, saying bettors should ride the Brazilian or even sprinkle KO. Malaro thinks the market love for Abus Magomedov is based on a single demolition of Dustin Stoltzfus and ignores everything since: Abus was gassed and finished by Sean Strickland, looked awful in a split with Warlley Alves, and needed repeated lay-and-pray moments to survive Bruno Ferreira—who still rocked him twice. Malaro stressed that Abus’ wrestling only works from the open mat and falls apart when he has to chain attempts or clinch-grind; Pereira’s 79-inch reach, explosive hips, and improved cardio make that style impossible. He pointed to Pereira stuffing the first eight shots of Anthony Hernandez, a far better wrestler, and noted the Kansas City altitude has historically wrecked limited-gas fighters like Abus. With Pereira landing 5.0 sig-strikes per minute and scoring 0.84 knockdowns per 15, Malaro projects Abus to fade after four frantic minutes and either eat a flying knee or get pounded out late. He is comfortable betting Pereira money-line to –150, plus the KO/TKO prop at +220.

Millz Young jumped on Michel Pereira after the number slid from −160 to −135, calling it the best value spot on the card. Pereira is 3-1 since moving up, mixes spinning kicks, calf kicks, and level-changing takedowns, and routinely out-paces opponents with 5.3 strikes per minute. Millz thinks Abus Magomedov is a pure power boxer who fades once his Plan A is neutralized and pointed to Abus landing only 14 total strikes in the final eight minutes of the Strickland fight as proof. Because Pereira carries the better cardio, more offensive wrestling, and a wider striking arsenal, Millz is comfortable parlaying Pereira moneyline or playing him by decision at nearly +200.

Gumby Vreeland said the best way to bet Michel Pereira this week is the +800 submission prop rather than the -135 moneyline. Vreeland noted Abus Magomedov has faded hard in multiple fights, pointing to the Sean Strickland bout where Magomedov was running on fumes minutes into Round 2. Pereira, who averages 12.8 significant-strike attempts per minute, weaponizes pace and historically jumps on guillotines and face-cranks once opponents are hurt (three submissions in his last five wins). Vreeland expects Magomedov to wrestle early, gas himself out, eat a big shot, and leave his neck exposed for Pereira to club-and-sub in the second round. He advised sprinkling the 8-to-1 submission ticket or using it as a long-shot hedge on Pereira parlays.

Paul Shaughnessy echoed Cody’s skepticism of Abus Magomedov but added several wrinkles that pushed him toward a finish-prop rather than simply the –140 money-line. Paul noted Abus’s two best wrestling showings came against undersized middleweights—Warlley Alves and Brunno Ferreira—both of whom Magomedov was able to lay on when his gas tank dipped. He doubts that strategy works on the 'enormous, shredded' Pereira, who stuffed early shots from cardio monster Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and repeatedly scrambled up despite being taken down ten times. Shaughnessy stressed Pereira’s power still translates at 185, citing the 61-second KO of Andre Petroski and nearly flooring Hernandez in Round 1. Because Abus visibly slowed after four minutes against Sean Strickland and even huffed through the Alves and Ferreira bouts, Paul expects him to “crumple over” from exhaustion, opening Pereira’s flying knees, spinning kicks, or overhand right. He recommended chasing Pereira inside-the-distance or KO props, arguing that Abus’s only viable path—wrestling for 15 minutes—will itself accelerate the cardio collapse.

Cody Saftic picked Michel Pereira at –140 and is chasing the knockout prop, arguing Abus Magomedov’s durability and gas tank are nowhere near UFC level. Cody rattled off Magomedov’s regional stumbles—KOs by 39-year-old Lewis Taylor, losses to Andrea Stahl and Mikael Parlo—and said even in victory Abus rarely shows elite wrestling or cardio. The German-Dagestani wilted after a good opening round against Sean Strickland and has been finished in 39 seconds on the regional scene. Pereira, now calmer but still explosive, has shown increasingly efficient boxing and owns the better five-minute output (4.16 sig. strikes landed per minute). Cody believes Pereira’s power punches or flying knees will find Abus’ suspect chin inside two rounds; he recommended the KO (or RD1/RD2) markets for bettors hunting violence.

Kunath said this is a classic buy‑low spot on Michel Pereira after the one‑sided loss to Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. He argued Pereira still owns every skill edge here: he dictates where fights take place, carries a granite chin, mixes body kicks with switch‑stance boxing, and owns underrated defensive wrestling. Abus Magomedov briefly quieted the cardio narrative by finishing Bruno Silva in Round 3, but Kunath noted Silva’s corner and the referee bailed him out there. Against Sean Strickland, Magomedov gassed out in five minutes and offered little when takedowns were stuffed. Kunath does not believe Magomedov can ground Pereira even once, and at kickboxing range Pereira’s speed, variety, and shot selection make this a mismatch. Because Magomedov is likely a step up from recent Pereira victims, Kunath expects Abus to survive but lose every round. Actionable call: bet Pereira by decision (+185 range) and plug him into balanced DFS builds where a 15‑minute striking clinic scores well without expensive salary risk.