MMA Guru called Muhammad Naimov a strong pick in Baku, projecting either a 30-26 decision or an early KO against Bogdan Grad. He dismissed Grad’s resume—highlighting a first-round knockout loss to Tom Nolan and a razor-thin Contender Series win over Michael Aswell that many scored the other way. In contrast, Naimov flattened Jamie Mullarkey in one and wobbled Nathaniel Wood despite multiple fouls, demonstrating legit one-shot power and physicality at 145. Fighting close to his Tajik homeland, Naimov should enjoy crowd energy and minimal travel. Guru believes Grad’s boxing-heavy style wilts once Naimov mixes level changes, clinch throws and heavy right hands, similar to how Naimov bullied Khainat Fayzullaev. Expect an explosive opening flurry, potential 10-8 first, then cruise control en route to a lopsided decision, with Naimov money-line still playable up to –250.

Madlab Michael Lurato sided with Muhammad Naimov at roughly –275, saying the Tajik prospect’s speed and clean punching will expose Bogdan Grad’s Darren-Elkins-style “heart but no tools” approach. Lurato praised Naimov’s sharper footwork, lateral movement and ability to throw in combination, noting that Grad plods straight lines and absorbs damage until opponents gas. He compared Grad’s resume to a collection of regional journeymen and argued that once you reach UFC level you need more than grit; you need techniques that win exchanges round after round. If Naimov keeps his gas tank intact and sticks to a cat-and-mouse game, Madlab expects Grad to be cut up and badly out-landed en route to either a clear decision or late mercy stoppage. He cautioned bettors not to expect a walk-over, but still labeled Naimov a worthy straight bet or parlay piece because the athletic and technical gaps are “obvious on tape.”

Jeff Fox acknowledged the striking and activity numbers lean toward Bogdan Grad, yet still sided with Muhammad Naimov. Fox argued that Naimov has looked far better against real UFC competition, citing the upset over Nathaniel Wood and the knockout of Jamie Malarkey as proof he belongs. Grad, by contrast, owns just one UFC appearance and has been flattened on the regional scene. Fox believes Naimov’s combination of faster hands, serviceable wrestling, and confidence gained from beating Wood will override any statistical edge Grad holds on paper.

Daniel Vreeland said Muhammad Naimov is the side because Bogdan Grad is visibly slower and overly reliant on spinning attacks that leave his hips exposed. Vreeland pointed to Naimov’s clean boxing – highlighted by the first-round KO of Jamie Malarkey – plus the fact he went takedown-for-takedown with Nathaniel Wood. He added that Grad arguably lost his Contender Series bout to Michael Aswell and was violently stopped by Tom Nolan, calling his record a bit inflated. With Naimov carrying legitimate one-shot power and a clear wrestling edge against a fighter who turns his back to spin, Vreeland expects Naimov to either spark Grad on the feet or dump him to the mat for long stretches.

Millz Young likes Muhammad Naimov at roughly -280, citing a cardio edge and expected crowd support in Baku. He predicts Bodan Grad’s forward pressure will cause early issues, but Naimov’s wrestling attempts and deeper gas tank should separate in rounds two and three. Millz warned bettors that if Naimov can’t secure takedowns the fight could be closer than odds imply, yet still believes the local favorite gets his hand raised.

In the main-card opener, Bedtime MMA picked Muhammad Naimov to squeak past Agent-47 Bogdan Grad, joking that Naimov carries ‘foreign-soil plot armor’ that sways hometown judges. He acknowledged Naimov’s résumé contains fluke wins and close calls but argued Grad’s record is equally padded with regional can-crushing. With neither man trustworthy, Bedtime likes the narrative that Naimov gets the nod if it reaches the cards, recommending a small stab on Naimov by split or majority decision.