Sniper cannot trust Nakamura’s game plan after the Japanese prospect shot one takedown in his last fight. He will monitor the first round live and, if Nakamura fails to shoot within the opening 2–2½ minutes, will immediately wager on underdog Nathan Fletcher. Sniper argues that without wrestling Nakamura’s output falls below 2 significant strikes per minute, giving Fletcher—who averages 4.0 sig. strikes and landed four takedowns on Contender Series—a clear path to out-work him. The pre-fight +300 line on Fletcher could drift once bettors see Nakamura’s inactivity, creating a plus-EV live-bet window.

THE MMA GURU called Nathan Fletcher a live dog to win 29-28 over Rinya Nakamura. Guru argues Nakamura is a one-dimensional control wrestler who offers little ground-and-pound or submission threat; that low-damage style courts trouble with modern judging. He flagged red-tape losses and shaky performances: getting "fraud-checked" by Muin Gafurov and stalling out versus 37-year-old Carlos Vera. Fletcher, despite a split loss to Caolan Loughran, brings more complete jiu-jitsu and willingness to strike. Guru envisions Nakamura securing takedowns but eating elbows, knees, and constant sub attempts that pile visible damage. He expects judges to favor Fletcher’s offense and picks the Englishman at sizeable underdog odds.