Gumby Vreeland advised taking the +205 underdog price on Nicolas Dalby. He highlighted Dalby’s ‘insane’ gas tank and willingness to crowd opponents, the exact style that gives the long-limbed Randy Brown trouble. Dalby survived 11 takedowns from Renat Fakhrutdinov and still out-landed him in Round 3, showing he can push a frantic pace for 15 minutes. Vreeland also pointed to Dalby’s 6-1 stretch (only loss a razor-thin split) and the fact that he has never been finished in 29 pro fights. With Brown’s historical issues when opponents negate his reach (0-3 when absorbing 5+ clinch strikes per round), Vreeland sees Dalby grinding out a decision or landing late momentum-based volume to sway the judges.

Bisping reluctantly sided with Nicolas Dalby over Randy Brown, stressing that Dalby owns “more ways to win.” Brown enters with 5-inch height and 6-inch reach advantages and lands 4.42 sig. strikes per minute, yet Bisping pointed out his 66 % takedown-defense continues to be his Achilles’ heel, citing the Jack Della Maddalena R1 choke. Dalby averages 1.46 takedowns per 15 and scrambles well enough to survive on bottom when he shoots recklessly. He is also 5-1 since returning to the UFC, showing cardio to push pace late and a willingness to mix clinch knees, body kicks and level changes. Bisping expects Brown to win early exchanges but predicted Dalby drags the Jamaican-born striker into dirty clinch exchanges, scores a couple of takedowns and sneaks a 29-28 decision. Bettors looking for plus money can target Dalby by decision props.