Michael Bisping doubled-down on the violence angle for Paul Craig’s return to light-heavyweight, highlighting opponent Rodolfo Bellato’s back-to-back knockouts of Iho Petere (ground-and-pound) and Murtazza Talha on the Contender Series. Bisping framed the matchup as classic grappler-versus-striker but stressed that Craig fights rarely reach the judges because Craig either drags opponents into his guard to hunt triangles (a UFC-record four at 205) or gets clipped by heavy hitters. With Bellato’s 7 career KOs colliding with Craig’s six UFC submissions, Bisping urged bettors to target Inside-the-Distance or Under rounds props instead of money-line sides, predicting "explosive action" from the opening bell.

Bisping predicted an explosive, likely non-decision fight between submission savant Paul Craig and hulking Brazilian striker Rodolfo Bellato. Craig returns to 205 pounds with the weight cut behind him and brings a record six light-heavyweight submissions (four by triangle, a UFC-wide record). Bellato stands 6'3" with seven knockouts, recently fought Jimmy Crute to a draw, and owns a string of ground-and-pound KOs on Contender Series. Bisping believes the clash of Craig’s guard-pulling jiu-jitsu and Bellato’s power shots creates an almost binary outcome—either Craig snares a limb or Bellato lands a fight-ending bomb—making "Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision" or Under rounds props the sharp way to attack betting markets.

Billy Ward hammered Paul Craig by knockout at +2500 on FanDuel, calling it 'an absurd line.' Ward argued Bellato is the light-heavyweight division’s most hittable fighter—knocked down in three of four UFC/Contender Series bouts, nearly finished twice by Jimmy Crute and stunned by Ihor Potieria. Bellato turns around only three months after absorbing heavy damage. On tape, the Brazilian 'plays jiu-jitsu' instead of doing MMA grappling, happily tying up underhooks while eating ground-and-pound. Craig, though an admittedly poor technician on the feet, swings hard and has scored past TKOs (Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill’s dislocated arm). Ward believes one wild Craig hook or top-position elbow lands often enough to cash far more than the implied 3.8% probability.