Sean Zerillo is targeting Peyton Talbot by decision at +470, calling it a pure value play. Talbot stands four inches taller with a two-inch reach edge and historically throws more volume than Felipe Lima, who relies on single-shot power and rarely initiates grappling. Zerillo grades Lima as the more well-rounded prospect long-term but notes he lost Round 1 to Muhammad Mokaev and was in a 50-50 Round 2 before finding the finish. If Lima does not wrestle proactively, Zerillo expects strike counts to be nearly even or favor Talbot, making a 15-minute fight lean Talbot. He projects the bout –140 to go the distance (market –150) and prices Talbot decision around +375, giving bettors roughly an 18% implied edge at current odds.

Billy Ward advised splitting a unit between Peyton Talbot’s money-line at roughly +150 and the fight Under 2.5 rounds at +154. Ward thinks the market has over-corrected after Talbot’s upset loss to Hanni Barcelos, swinging him from a –1250 favorite to an underdog in a matchup that actually suits his skill set. Both Talbot and Felipe Lima are pressure strikers, but Ward gives Talbot the edge in counter-striking craft and believes Lima’s reckless aggression will create clean counters. Ward expects extended pocket exchanges rather than wrestling—Lima averages just 0.55 takedown attempts per 15 minutes—so either man can end it quickly. By pairing the Talbot ML with the time prop, Ward profits if Talbot wins by any method, breaks even if either man scores an early knockout, and hits a home run if Talbot finishes inside 12½ minutes.

Madlab Michael Lurato urged bettors not to abandon Payton Talbott despite last fall’s loss to Rani Barcelo. He framed the bout with Felipe Lima as a buy-low spot: Talbott is +165 even though the UFC is clearly still high on him—evidenced by throwing him right back in with a debuting Killer Instinct prospect. Lurato believes Talbott is an unusually quick study who will tighten the defensive lapses that cost him and add "new wrinkles" after his first true humbling. He also questioned whether Lima’s 21-2 regional record overstates his level, noting that six of Lima’s last seven opponents owned sub-.500 records at the time. The tout expects Talbott’s longer frame (3-inch reach edge) and scramble speed to turn what looks like a striker-versus-grappler matchup into long stretches at kickboxing range, where Lima’s defense (46% significant-strike D on tape) is far leakier than the market assumes. At plus money, Lurato will “ride the talent upside” and sprinkle Talbott by decision at roughly +400 as a ladder play.