Jeff Fox targeted Phil Rowe’s Inside-the-Distance prop at +300 instead of the money-line. Fox pointed out that all of Rowe’s professional victories—including all three UFC wins—have come via stoppage, making a decision ticket essentially dead on arrival. He expects Rowe’s seven-inch reach edge and sniper right hand to create early damage against a much shorter opponent who will have to blitz into the pocket. If the smaller man attempts takedowns, Rowe’s underrated front-choke game offers submission equity. Given the kill-or-be-killed style Rowe brings, Fox believes +300 is mispriced relative to both fighter’s win conditions.

Guru predicts Phil Rowe inside the distance, likely by submission or TKO. He highlighted Lusa’s chronic issue of backing to the fence and allowing opponents to dictate terms. Rowe’s 80-inch reach and patient shot selection create windows to trap Lusa, the way he did vs Nico Price. Guru added that Lusa is "manhandle-able"—even mid-tier welterweights drag him into bad spots—and lacks fight-ending power to flip momentum. Look for Rowe to press him to the cage, force a desperate takedown, and cinch a D’arce or club-and-sub finish.

Madlab is taking the slight dog price on Phil Rowe, arguing the 6-foot-3 welterweight owns every measurable edge over 5-10 Ange Lusa. Rowe carries a six-inch reach advantage, fights in the 30-foot cage this week, and can ‘stab from the outside’ with straight shots before circling away. Lusa’s entire game revolves around crashing the pocket, bullying opponents on the fence, and muscling clinch exchanges—tasks that become exponentially harder when the bigger cage gives Rowe room to stay on his bike. Madlab said Rowe’s long limbs create immediate front-choke threats whenever Lusa changes levels, which should force Lusa to hesitate on entries and open him to counters. Because Rowe only needs to maintain space while Lusa must solve multiple puzzles (close distance, avoid guillotines, win wrestling scrambles), Madlab grades Rowe with “more danger zones in his favor” and sees him as the side with both the cleaner boxing upside and the opportunistic submission paths. He is comfortable betting Rowe outright or sprinkling Rowe submission props at plus money.