John Lanfranca is taking Quang Le at +120 over Gaston Bolanos because the Peruvian striker’s 43 % takedown defense has allowed eight takedowns and 14 minutes of control time across just three UFC appearances. Lanfranca highlighted that even grappling-limited Brontaeus Romans twice took Bolanos’s back and threatened an armbar. He sees the striking as relatively even but expects Le’s heavier top pressure to bank at least two rounds and sway the judges. In what he calls a true coin-flip, Lanfranca prefers the dog with the clearer path to control and positional dominance.

Rabbi Mort labeled Quang Bang Lee a clear "dog or pass" play at +115, citing massive grappling upside. He believes Lee can compete on the feet as long as he checks low kicks, but the real edge is wrestling—Bolanos has been “cooked” on the mat, submitted twice, and face-planted by Marcus McGhee. Mort pointed out Bolanos’ chin issues (KO loss to McGhee, knockdown versus Roimas) and poor defensive grappling. He suggested sprinkling Lee by decision (+300) or the richer submission prop (+750) and even mentioned a sub/decision double-chance ticket to capture both likely paths.

Kunath sided with underdog Quang Le to notch his inaugural UFC victory inside the distance. While Bolanos is the cleaner technician from years of Muay Thai, his shell-up defense allowed Marcus McGhee to hook around the guard at will and repeatedly rock him. Kunath anticipates the same openings against Le, who throws harder, lands harder, and has the option to mix in takedowns if desired—giving him multiple win conditions. Expect Le to loop power shots around Bolanos’ high guard, hurt him early, and finish with follow-up strikes or ground-and-pound. Bettors should target Le ITD or KO at plus money, and DFS players get low-owned underdog finish equity perfect for large-field tournaments.