Jeff Fox backed Raoni Barcelos to beat former champ Cody Garbrandt at -175. Fox argued Barcelos is the superior striker (+0.47 significant-strike differential), the better grappler, and carries a two-inch reach edge while Garbrandt’s durability and submission defense have eroded. Barcelos can win extended kickboxing exchanges or take the fight to the mat, leaving Garbrandt without a clear path to victory. Fox sees few scenarios where Garbrandt prevails and is confident laying the current price.

THE MMA GURU backed Raoni Barcelos to spoil Cody Garbrandt’s latest comeback bid, projecting either a clear decision or a ground-and-pound TKO in round two. Guru argued Garbrandt’s issues are baked into his DNA, not the result of one injury: he was flat-lined on the regional scene, repeatedly makes the same defensive mistakes (exposing his back, throwing off-balance low-kicks while retreating) and has pulled out of multiple fights with nagging setbacks. Barcelos, meanwhile, is still competing with killers—he dropped Timur Valiev hard enough to warrant a 10-8, and recently “fraud-checked” the explosive Peyton Talbott. Guru trusts Barcelos’ seasoned shot-selection, heavy calf-kicks and opportunistic top control to punish Garbrandt once the exchanges turn honest, saying, “I just can’t logically pick Garbrandt to win a fight in 2025.”

Dan Tom singled out Raoni Barcelos inside-the-distance at +400 as his favorite round-robin anchor. He noted that books are hanging identical 4-1 prices on both KO and submission props, which tells him oddsmakers have no read on how Barcelos will finish—only that a finish is likely. Tom expects it to materialize because Garbrandt still folds under sustained grappling pressure; he reminded listeners Garbrandt would have "capitulated" in the rear-mount sequences Peyton Talbot survived against Barcelos. While conceding both men are “touchable,” Tom trusts Barcelos’ volume and willingness to chase back-takes to exploit Garbrandt’s fragile chin and historically shaky defensive jiu-jitsu. He is comfortable using Barcelos money-line as the chalk leg of two-leg parlays and sprinkling the ITD prop in round robins, warning only of a low-percentage flash KO from Garbrandt.

Madlab picked Raoni Barcelos at roughly –195, arguing that his nonstop forward pressure and volume will eventually force Cody Garbrandt into exchanges he cannot survive. Garbrandt has been knocked out four times since 2017 and now fights cautiously, relying on a jab-and-run style that removes the chaos that once made him champion. Madlab believes that hesitation is fatal against Barcelos, a high-pace attacker he compared to a bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili in his prime. Barcelos mixes sharp combinations with takedown attempts, owns the sturdier chin, and is willing to walk through Garbrandt’s single shots to land multi-punch flurries. Garbrandt’s wrestling should keep him upright early, but one clean counter or prolonged pocket trade could end his night. Madlab is comfortable playing Barcelos straight or looking at Barcelos KO/TKO props, convinced sustained pressure will ultimately crack Garbrandt’s brittle chin.