Matty Betss said he is backing Renato Moicano and will "sprinkle" the +500 KO prop rather than chase the pick-em moneyline. He argued most bettors assume two elite grapplers neutralise each other and force a decision, but Moicano’s ground-and-pound has quietly turned into a true fight-ending weapon. Betss pointed to the Paris beat-down of Benoit Saint-Denis—Moicano carved BSD’s face up from mount—as proof of that leap. With Beneil Dariush coming off a frustrating layoff and looking visibly older at the presser, Betss thinks the Brazilian holds the fresher gas tank and sharper boxing. If either man lands first, top-position hammerfists will follow—and Betss trusts Moicano’s finishing instincts far more. At nearly 5-to-1, he believes the KO ticket captures hidden value created by Moicano’s cardio edge, improved body work and vicious elbows from guard.

Joe Osborne laid out why he is betting Renato Moicano at -120 against Beneil Dariush. Osborne argued that Dariush looks washed after suffering two straight brutal knock-out losses and sitting on the shelf for 18 months—an especially bad recipe for a 35-year-old lightweight who relies on durability. Moicano, meanwhile, had strung together four wins with three finishes before stepping in on 24-hours’ notice versus Islam Makhachev, a loss Osborne refuses to hold against him. He highlighted how Moicano dominated Benoit Saint-Denis and has shown renewed aggression in embedded footage this week. With the Brazilian’s momentum and Dariush’s declining chin, Osborne believes the younger, fresher fighter has more paths to victory and is undervalued near a pick’em price.

Breaking down the main-card opener, Tim Welch ultimately sided with Renato Moicano by decision. He stressed how similar the 36-year-olds are—both high-level BJJ black belts and competent southpaw/orthodox kickboxers. The difference, Welch said, is momentum: Moicano’s only recent blemish is the short-notice Islam Makhachev loss, whereas Dariush is on a two-fight skid (finished by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan) and has been inactive for a full year. Welch expects the grappling to cancel out and sees Moicano’s cleaner boxing winning enough minutes to take a 29-28 type scorecard in what he labeled "a complete coin flip."

Tim Welch said he is taking the PrizePicks square of “more than 11.75 minutes of fight time” in the Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano matchup. Welch expects both 36-year-old BJJ black belts to spend long stretches striking because each man respects the other’s submission chops. Dariush is coming off two quick defeats, which Welch thinks will make the southpaw more conservative, while Moicano’s recent five-fight run (before the Islam Makhachev loss) showed he can keep a measured pace for three rounds. Add in their comparable cardio and the likelihood that early grappling exchanges stall out in stalemates, and Welch projects the bout to reach at least the midpoint of round 3, easily clearing the 11.75-minute number.

MMA Guru sided with Renato Moicano to beat Beneil Dariush by 29-28 decision. He expects Moicano to bank rounds one and two behind an up-tempo jab-plus-takedown game while Dariush battles 18-month layoff rust. Guru reminded listeners that Dariush has been iced in the first round of two straight fights (Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira), suggesting his once-elite durability is fading. Meanwhile, Moicano stayed active, dominated Jalin Turner positionally, and blew out Benoit Saint-Denis before taking a short-notice title shot against Islam Makhachev. Guru praised Moicano’s improved top control—citing the Turner fight where Gamrot could not replicate the same dominance—and sharper boxing combinations that showed up early versus Saint-Denis. He envisions Dariush rallying late with wild overhands and leg-lock scrambles, but not enough to erase early damage or the optics of Moicano’s cleaner work. Moicano ML and Moicano by decision props were his preferred betting looks.

Danny Brasco folded Renato Moicano +3.5 rounds into a spread parlay, banking on the Brazilian to win at least one frame against Beneil Dariush. Brasco thinks Dariush’s once-elite durability has eroded after back-to-back knockout losses, pointing to Matheus Gamrot wobbling him and Charles Oliveira finishing him inside a round. Moicano, by contrast, owns a nuanced jab-cross arsenal and underrated ground game that forces opponents to respect both levels. Brasco referenced the earlier panel discussion that Dariush’s wrestling scrambles could cancel out some of Moicano’s jiu-jitsu, making extended striking exchanges likely. If that happens, Brasco trusts Moicano’s fresher chin and 4.98 strikes landed per minute to steal at least one of the 10-point-must frames, cashing the +3.5 ticket even in a competitive loss.

Kunath advised betting “Money” Moikano by knockout, arguing Benil Dariush’s decline is real. Both men are high-level grapplers, so Kunath expects the wrestling to stalemate and force a striking match. While Dariush once packed heavier single-shot power, he now throws one-and-done combinations and hasn’t posted a win since late 2021. Over that span Moikano is 4-1, the lone defeat coming to Islam Makhachev—hardly a red flag. Kunath noted Dariush’s back-to-back first-round KOs to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan: both finishes began with strikes landing on a fully-guarded Dariush, suggesting durability erosion. In contrast, Moikano only folds when opponents string multiple punches together—exactly what Dariush no longer does. Add 16 months of inactivity for Dariush versus Moikano’s active 2023, superior momentum, and cleaner straight-punch mechanics, and Kunath projects Moikano to overwhelm the veteran and score a mid-fight TKO that will surprise the market.

Sniper is planting a flag on Renato “Money” Moicano at –120 and $8,400, planning to be overweight on him and underweight on Beneil Dariush. He questioned Dariush’s chin after back-to-back first-round drubbings by Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira and walked through Moicano’s advantages. The Brazilian throws substantially higher volume—Sniper called him "way better on the feet, more explosive"—and still owns a dangerous submission game should the fight hit the mat. Dariush’s control time may build late, but Moicano stuffs 71 % of takedowns and scrambles well enough to keep exchanges striking-centric, where Dariush’s pace historically slows. Because the salaries sit in the same mid-range pocket, Sniper believes you must choose a side; he wants the superior striker with the healthier durability profile. He will stack the fight in a few lineups because the ITD prop sits at –135, but the majority of his exposure goes to Moicano, expecting 90-plus DraftKings points via superior output or a finish.

Bedtime MMA, a long-time Beneil Dariush supporter, said the veteran is “washed” after consecutive knockouts and picked Renato Moicano to finish him by ground-and-pound. He highlighted Dariush’s recent collapse versus Arman Tsarukyan— out cold from the first elbow— and his flat-footed striking with zero head movement. Moicano’s sharper jab-cross, quicker feet and opportunistic takedowns should exploit that decline. The scenario: Moicano stings Dariush with a jab or counters a body-kick, catches the leg, drags him down, then pounds until the ref waves it off before the end of Round 2. Bedtime MMA trusts Dariush’s famed scrambles less now, noting his reactions looked slow and his chin unreliable. Recommended plays: Moicano ML, Moicano ITD, Moicano KO/TKO, sprinkle Round 2 finish.