Monk plans to be well under the field on $9.3K Rinya Nakamura. The Olympic-level wrestler attempted just one takedown in his loss to Muin Gafurov and has topped 90 DK points only once in four official UFC bouts, relying on 2.0 significant strikes per minute at distance. Even when he did wrestle—4-of-4 takedowns versus Fernie Garcia—he posted only 90.7 DK. Fletcher conceded six of 12 takedowns to Caolan Loughran, so upside exists, but Monk doubts Nakamura will exploit it often enough to smash. With higher-ceiling $9K options like Estevan and Bashi available, Monk is fading Nakamura in GPPs, using only minimal Fletcher hedges, and advising players to allocate salary elsewhere.

After blowing parlays in the loss to Muin Gafurov, Rinya Nakamura gets a get-right spot, according to Kunath. Nathan Fletcher was walked down and taken down six times by Kalan Lagrin, and Kunath argues you cannot fight a wrestler while backing up. He expects Nakamura to return to his bread-and-butter, chaining takedowns early and often, sitting in top control and banking minutes. Athleticism and wrestling edge should carry the Japanese prospect to a comfortable decision. Kunath recommends the Nakamura money-line and the decision prop for a better payday.