TheWeasle still expects Roman Kopylov’s southpaw distance kickboxing to edge Paulo Costa, but he called the current –300 tag "too big of a favorite." He reminded listeners that Kopylov thrives on jab-left-straight and liver kicks while circling, yet Costa’s pressure, size, and brutal body work mean Kopylov must execute a perfect stick-and-move game plan for 15 minutes. With that much volatility—Costa can barge into the pocket and steal rounds on sheer volume—the touted analyst recommends passing on Kopylov’s money line or looking for tighter prop markets instead of laying the chalk.

TheWeasle picked Roman Kopylov to upset Paulo Costa by decision, emphasizing a southpaw-centric distance game. At range Kopylov can repeatedly line up the left straight and slam liver kicks, whereas Costa’s open-stance right straight is less polished. Costa’s path is to bulldoze forward with combinations and brutal body work, but his predictable pressure and limited head movement leave him hittable on the way in. If Kopylov circles, resets, and “rinse-and-repeats” the jab-left-kick pattern, he can intercept Costa, pile up damage, and avoid prolonged pocket exchanges. Unless Costa cuts the cage flawlessly, TheWeasle thinks Kopylov’s cleaner kickboxing and footwork will bank rounds and earn a judges’ nod.

Madlab Michael Lurato recommended betting Roman Kopylov by decision at roughly +170 (depending on the book). He praised Costa’s historical body-work and power but questioned the Brazilian’s current commitment after a two-year run of withdrawals, social-media antics, and lackluster showings. Lurato views Kopylov as “grossly underrated,” highlighting his patience, angle changes and precision straight left that can score without getting drawn into the kind of chaotic pocket exchanges Costa thrives on. Costa’s durability (never knocked out, motor even when gassed) makes a clean KO unlikely, while Kopylov’s superior technical approach should let him “chew Costa up for 15 minutes” as long as he avoids getting sloppy or trapped on the fence. Because Costa is 5-1 versus UFC southpaws yet every win came over fighters no longer on the roster, Lurato trusts the Russian’s momentum and expects the judges to reward his cleaner work over three rounds.

Welch played the PrizePicks "less than 22.5 significant strikes in Round 1" for Roman Kopylov. He believes neither man will immediately plant in the pocket—expecting a cautious feeling-out process before the firefight breaks out in later rounds—so sub-23 strikes from Kopylov in the opener is the sharper side.

MMA Guru projected Roman Kopylov to outwork Paulo Costa for a 30-27 decision. He ripped Costa’s current style, saying the Brazilian ‘does everything as hard as he can, no finishes, never will,’ and noting that Costa now throws occasional body jabs and calf kicks but ‘rarely punches anyone in the face.’ Kopylov, meanwhile, is the busier striker, will actually have a slight reach edge, and can mix steady peppering combinations with sudden head-kick bursts. Guru believes Costa’s full-power swings will sap his cardio without producing damage, while repeated forearm and body kicks from Kopylov will make Costa shell up and stop throwing. He framed the matchup as Kopylov’s ascent versus Costa’s last-chance reboot and advised betting Kopylov straight, by decision, or small exposure to a late TKO.