Billy Ward backed Santiago Ponzinibbio on the moneyline, arguing the Argentine’s heavier punching and recent form make him the superior side in a firefight he doubts reaches the cards. Ward noted Ponzi is 2-2 with two knockout wins and two split-decision losses in his last five, meaning he could easily be 4-1 if a couple of scorecards flipped. Daniel Rodriguez, by contrast, is also 2-3 but has been finished twice and owns only split-decision victories in that span. Ward expects Ponzinibbio’s power and aggression to register with judges if it does go 15 minutes, and he thinks ATT will build a smarter game plan—potentially mixing in takedowns—than Rodriguez’s 10th Planet camp. Given Ponzi’s willingness to bite down and the clear edge in knockout equity, Ward believes the variance breaks in Ponzi’s favor at the current price.

Kyle Anthony recommended betting Santiago Ponzinibbio at –118, arguing the aging Argentine still owns the tools that matter against the equally 38-year-old Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s statistical advantage is volume—he landed 120+ significant strikes in each of his last two bouts—yet he has almost no knockout pop. Anthony said Ponzinibbio is the more versatile and technical striker, possesses faster hands, and carries true fight-ending power that shows up late: four of his last five wins are by KO, with three coming in round three or four. D-Rod’s chin is hittable, and Ponzinibbio’s “kill-or-be-killed” style means one clean shot can trump Rodriguez’s pitter-patter totals. Additionally, Ponzinibbio can mix takedowns; Kelvin Gastelum went 4-for-4 and Neil Magny 5-for-7 on Rodriguez recently, while Ponzinibbio himself secured two takedowns versus Muslim Salikhov. Anthony expects Rodriguez to out-land but for Ponzinibbio’s heavier damage, possible wrestling, and late-fight power to sway judges or produce a finish, making the slight favorite worth a play.

The Weasle likes Santiago Ponzinibbio by second-round knockout. Ponzi’s snappy jab, inside-low kicks and in-and-out footwork contrast with Rodriguez’s stiff, flat-footed approach. While both are volume punchers, Ponzinibbio carries the heavier hands and faster hand speed. The jab can both set up Ponzi’s own right-straight counters and disrupt Rodriguez’s rhythm, forcing ‘D-Rod’ into a firefight he loses on power. Rodriguez’s durability keeps him upright early, but repeated jabs and calf kicks slow him until a right hand or hook ends the night in Round 2. Betting looks: Ponzinibbio ML, Ponzinibbio KO/TKO, under 2.5.

DFS Army picked Santiago Ponzinibbio at –125 but wants almost no DFS exposure to either side of the mid-range bout with Daniel Rodriguez. The fight is –170 to go the distance, neither man wrestles, and both are the same age, leading the analyst to project a 15-minute kickboxing match that tops out around 70 DK points for the winner. Ponzinibbio does throw 5.7 significant strikes per minute (see his Carlson Harris knockout) and owns 90 % takedown defense, which should be enough to edge a decision over the slower, cardio-suspect Rodriguez. Still, he labeled this his “second least-favorite fight to target,” fading it in cash and being underweight in GPPs despite the slight betting lean toward Ponzi.

Jim Malaro urged listeners to fire on Santiago Ponzinibbio, arguing the Argentine looked like a completely different athlete against Carlston Harris—better cardio, better chin and nonstop forward pressure—after what he jokingly called a trip to a “damn good doctor” for some performance assistance. Both fighters are 38, but Malaro believes Ponzi’s new-found gas tank and aggression make him fight five years younger, whereas Daniel Rodriguez looks like a shell: gassed against Kelvin Gastelum, flat-lined by Ian Garry and choked by Neil Magny in his last three. Rodriguez’s lone common-opponent win over Alex Morono came when Morono accepted on two days’ notice. With Ponzinibbio marching forward throwing combinations and Rodriguez fading after a round, Malaro is betting Ponzi moneyline and sprinkling the Round-3 or KO prop, expecting the amped-up version to overwhelm a disinterested D-Rod late.

Cody Saftic also sided with Santiago Ponzinibbio but expects significantly more violence than the market implies. He emphasized that Rodriguez’s trademark jab-and-go style has lost a step—his speed and athleticism have cratered since the catch-weight split over Li Jingliang where he enjoyed a 10-pound advantage yet barely squeaked by. Over the last three fights Rodriguez has been hit clean repeatedly, culminating in a Round-1 knockout loss to Ian Garry that raised durability red flags. Cody believes the Des Moines crowd will amplify exchanges, forcing pocket trades where Ponzi’s heavier right hand still carries pop. He noted Rodriguez routinely out-lands opponents yet loses because the other guy lands the “bigger moments,” and Ponzi still passes that optics test. Betting angle: lay the modest –125 money-line, consider Ponzinibbio KO/TKO props for a partial hedge, and treat decision as Plan B in a greasy affair.

Gumby Vreeland leaned toward Santiago Ponzinibbio at roughly ‑120, arguing that if both veterans are content to stand and bang, Ponzinibbio is the man who still owns real knockout juice. He pointed out that Daniel Rodriguez has not scored a KO in several fights, has started to slow noticeably after the first round, and was even taken the distance by Alex Morono in a split decision. Rodriguez, according to Vreeland, continues to absorb big shots and has now been knocked out while his own finishing pop has evaporated. Ponzinibbio, by contrast, showed in his most recent outing that his hands can still shut the lights off. Because neither fighter wrestles much, Vreeland expects a pure boxing match and believes the Argentine’s superior power gives him the higher ceiling and the better side of what is basically a pick’em line.

MMA Guru predicted Santiago Ponzinibbio will out-point Daniel Rodriguez in a slow, crowd-booed decision by mixing even kickboxing exchanges with opportunistic round-stealing takedowns. Guru framed the matchup as lifelong martial artist versus talented street brawler: Ponzinibbio owns wins over Neil Magny and a split decision war with Geoff Neal, while Rodriguez has lately looked flat, making poor grappling choices and dropping bouts to Magny and Mike Malott. Ponzinibbio’s calf-kick game that chewed up Kevin Holland should blunt D-Rod’s lead leg and restrict his boxing combinations. If rounds stay close, Guru expects Ponzinibbio to time reactive doubles in the final 30 seconds, land a handful of strikes from top, and sway judges under damage-first scoring. Because Rodriguez is coming off multiple surgeries and lacks a dedicated wrestling game, Guru sees little finishing danger either way. He advised bettors to take Ponzinibbio at slight-favorite money or sprinkle the Ponzinibbio-by-decision prop for a better payout.

Bedtime MMA leaned toward Santiago Ponzinibbio scoring a late knockout over Daniel Rodriguez in what he called a classic 50/50 old-head matchup. While acknowledging both men are past their primes, he argued Ponzinibbio owns more paths—able to steal rounds when ahead or flip the script with one big flurry when behind. Rodriguez, by contrast, has won exclusively via razor-thin or outright ‘robbery’ decisions lately (Lee Jingliang, Alex Morono). Ponzinibbio’s comeback KOs of Marono and Carlson Harris show he still carries fight-ending pop, and the tout expects a slow, low-volume striking duel where Ponzinibbio suddenly strings a combination that forces a referee stoppage, possibly after the first two rounds are toss-ups on the cards.