MMA Guru reaffirmed his pick on Sean O'Malley but added a fresh angle: the two long control stretches Merab Dvalishvili banked in their first meeting (Rounds 2 and 4) were statistical outliers for a fighter who usually scrambles rather than blankets. He argued it is "wildly unlikely" Marab logs another full round of top-control, meaning the rematch should feature more of the competitive striking minutes that O'Malley won in Rounds 1, 3 and 5 last time. Guru further cited a potential mindset edge—fight week is "all Marab all the time" while O'Malley has gone quiet on media, a dynamic he says keeps the pressure on the Georgian and lets the sniper stay dialed in. Action plan: grab O'Malley money-line at +260 (playable down to +225), ladder TKO props in Rounds 3-5, and hedge a split-decision ticket (+600 or longer) because three swing rounds could easily land on the cards.

MMA Guru urged listeners to grab Sean O'Malley’s +260 money-line before it shortens, emphasizing several edges he believes the market is ignoring. First, O’Malley enters this rematch fully healthy after surgeries that fixed the hip and ankle issues that limited his scramble pop in the first fight, whereas Merab Dvalishvili is coming off consecutive five-round camps (Umar Nurmagomedov in January, now O’Malley again) that Guru thinks leave the Georgian "worn and mentally flat." Second, re-watching their 25-minute opener showed O’Malley clearly bagging Rounds 3 and 5 and repeatedly hurting Merab to the body with front kicks and knees—proof he can win minutes on the feet despite takedown pressure. Guru doubts Merab’s striking ceiling has moved, but he expects O’Malley’s defensive grappling to level up enough to shave one or two successful entries, turning long control spells into quick get-ups. He projects a fight that resembles the first, third and fifth frames of bout #1 played out over all five rounds, giving an opportunistic sniper like O’Malley "too many bullets and 50 full minutes to land one." Betting angles: play the money-line at anything above +225; ladder TKO Round-2/3 props at +750 or better; hedge with decision at +450 because, in Guru’s words, "if it’s close, the UFC marketing machine and the judges will lean Sugar’s way."

MMA Guru flipped his early lean and now forecasts Sean O'Malley to stop Merab Dvalishvili inside the championship rounds. Re-watching their first meeting, he noted O'Malley clearly won the 3rd and 5th, hurt Merab to the body with kicks, and found knees up the middle—evidence he can land clean despite the takedown threat. Guru believes O'Malley will shore up the specific scrambles that led to the two lengthy top-control spells Marab banked in Rounds 2 and 4, while Merab’s non-finishing style forces him to spend huge minutes in the cage—"sooner or later someone clips you." Given O'Malley’s sniper accuracy and 50 full minutes to locate a kill shot, Guru projects a Round-4 TKO and likes O'Malley KO/TKO props at +300 or better. He cautioned against laying juice on the grind-heavy Georgian, arguing the small-cage variance of a 25-minute fight favors the puncher.

Kunath said Sean O'Malley is the bet in the UFC 316 main event, calling for a decision victory to reclaim the title. He noted that O'Malley still took the fifth round in the first meeting despite coming in "very flat" and dealing with a hip injury, which the fighter later disclosed. Over the nine-month layoff, Kunath expects O'Malley to have drilled defensive wrestling—lower stance, more body kicks, smarter right hands—to limit Merab Dvalishvili’s trademark chain-takedown attempts. He emphasized that Dvalishvili owns an 8 % UFC finish rate and offers minimal submission threat, allowing O'Malley to safely give his back while returning to his feet. Kunath believes the superior striker can touch, move, and out-point the cardio machine for five rounds, leveraging improved get-ups, matured focus (no “peace pipe” distractions), and the confidence gained from already seeing Marab’s pace. Betting angle: play O’Malley by decision or money-line plus decision prop because a KO is unlikely against Marab’s durability.

Bedtime MMA urged bettors to avoid Sean O'Malley's knockout or submission lines and instead play Over 4.5 rounds or Fight Goes the Distance. While he concedes O'Malley will look sharper and almost certainly rock Merab once, he pointed to Dvalishvili surviving knockdowns from Moraes, Cejudo, and Umar without ever being finished. Merab's pace, clinch control, and refusal to concede dominant positions make a stoppage unlikely, and O'Malley lacks a credible submission threat off his back. Given their proven five-round cardio and the first meeting's full 25-minute runtime, Bedtime sees plus-money value on distance props versus chasing the flashier O'Malley ITD number.

Tim Welch emphasized that Sean O'Malley’s conditioning is peaking ahead of the expected clash with cardio-machine Marab Dvalishvili. Welch put O'Malley through a 27-minute grinder that averaged 184 bpm—peaking at 195—essentially a sustained VO2-max effort. Welch noted most high-level pros can’t hold that heart-rate zone for more than a few minutes, framing it as proof O'Malley can match or surpass Marab’s trademark pace. Because O'Malley is handling that intensity in camp, Welch expects Sugar to stay dangerous into the championship rounds, making him a live betting target for late-fight props (round 4/5 finish or decision) and an attractive side on the moneyline if early odds shade toward Marab’s wrestling.