Billy Ward grabbed Sodiq Yusuff at +114 and would play any plus number, arguing the move up to lightweight gives Yusuff tangible advantages. According to Ward, Santos accepted the bout simply to stay active and plans to drop back to featherweight, meaning Yusuff should be the noticeably larger, stronger man on fight night. Yusuff owns a 37% takedown success rate and averages 1.3 subs per 15 minutes, while Santos was out-grappled and—per 95% of media cards—robbed Francis Marshall in his lone UFC fight. Ward acknowledged chin concerns for Yusuff but believes skipping the brutal 145-pound cut plus facing a massive step down from Edson Barboza and Diego Lopez mitigates that risk. With a presumed grappling edge and physicality advantage, he feels the line should be closer to -120 Yusuff.

Dan Tom said the short-notice nature of this booking forced the bout to 155 rather than the normal 145 and that extra ten pounds is a sneaky plus for Sodiq Yusuff. Yusuff has admitted the featherweight cut has been brutal for years, calling himself ‘a really dense guy,’ and is already flirting with a permanent move up. Santos is a big featherweight too, but Tom argued the smaller Brazilian gains less because he is still growing into his frame, whereas Yusuff immediately benefits from added durability and cardio with no drain. Tom also reminded listeners that neither man is a one-shot knockout artist, so the lighter cut for Yusuff does not erase a power gap. Combine the healthier weight cut, Yusuff’s proven forward-pressure style that wins optics, and Santos’ apparent hesitation after admitting he thought he lost the Francis Marshall fight, and Tom labeled it a clear “dog-or-pass” spot. He is leaning to Yusuff money-line at anything +100 or better and expects the fight to reach the judges more often than the market implies, making Over 2.5 a viable sidecar wager.

Michael Lurato called Sodiq Yusuff a "get-right spot" at plus money, arguing the Nigerian packs an extra gear of violence that Santos simply lacks. Lurato reviewed tape of Yusuff’s three-round war with Mike Davis—"the best Contender Series fight ever"—and his fearless pressure against snipers like Edson Barboza, concluding that Yusuff trusts both his chin and his power. He contrasted that with Santos, who appeared tentative against Marshall, never committing fully and seemingly fighting with a safety on his trigger. In exchanges Lurato expects the optics to favor Yusuff: harder shots, cleaner power connections, and a willingness to bite down when Santos tries to jab from distance. He also noted that if judges had awarded Marshall the decision, Santos would not even own this matchup, underscoring how untested he remains. Because the matchup plays directly into Yusuff’s willingness to trade and Santos’ tendency to coast, Lurato advised taking the Yusuff money-line at anything above even odds, labeling it his preferred underdog bet on the card.

Dan Tom said the betting line is "begging you to play the dog" because Sodiq Yusuff is the far more proven product while Mairon Santos has done little beyond a highly-debated split over Francis Marshall. Tom pointed out that Santos looked visibly gun-shy for the final two rounds after being dropped and may not even have been booked here had the judges gone the other way. Yusuff, on the other hand, has shown he can push pace against elite strikers—walking down Edson Barboza, surviving a firefight with Mike Davis on Contender Series—and routinely lands his counter right with serious pop. Tom also questioned how much hands-on coaching Santos actually receives at the oversaturated Xtreme Couture gym and warned that many UFC fighters are taking short-notice bouts due to the crowded schedule. All things considered, Tom advised a simple Yusuff money-line play at anything plus-100 or better and labeled the matchup strictly “dog or pass.”

Gumby Vreeland backed Sodiq Yusuff as a slight +115 underdog, emphasizing two key edges: level of competition and the unexpected jump to lightweight. Yusuff’s only UFC losses are to Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza, and Diego Lopes—top-15 talents—while Mairon Santos is 2-0 against Francis Marshall and Connor Matthews. The bout being held at 155 lbs removes Yusuff’s brutal featherweight cut, a boost Vreeland says will improve his gas tank and durability at age 31. He believes the Nigerian’s craft—tight boxing combinations, feints, and a sneaky counter right—will frustrate the explosive but still raw Santos, whose defense has looked hittable even on the Contender Series. Vreeland expects a veteran savvy striking performance, predicting Yusuff wins a competitive but clear decision to halt his two-fight skid.

Sniper was baffled that Sodiq Yusuff opened as a +115 underdog to Mairon Santos and urged bettors to jump on the plus money before it disappears. Yusuff’s resume includes wins over Mike Davis, Gabriel Benitez, and Andre Fili—far stiffer competition than Santos, whose UFC ledger consists of a split decision over fringe prospect Francis Marshall and a finish of Khusein Askhabov, a fighter Sniper labeled ‘awful.’ From a skills standpoint, Yusuff lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute, defends 63 %, and owns solid takedown defense, while Santos has been controlled and forced into close fights against lower-tier opponents. With the market expecting a decision (–225), Sniper values Yusuff’s minute-winning kickboxing in both betting and DFS, projecting 80-plus DraftKings points in a win. He plans to be overweight on Yusuff at $7,900 and believes the money-line misprice will correct toward pick’em or Yusuff favorite by fight night.