Dan Tom advised bettors to look for the split-decision prop instead of a money-line play in Thompson–Bonfim. He explained that Nashville cards routinely mix local judges on the prelims and main card, producing 30-27 scorecards in opposite directions. With a big cage favoring Thompson’s footwork and Bonfim’s best path requiring clinch-heavy grappling, Tom expects a competitive fight that sees the scorecards more often than the betting public thinks. Because books still hang juicy +800 to +1200 numbers on split outcomes, he believes this matchup is the quintessential split-prop target on the card.

Michael Lurato called Stephen Wonderboy Thompson the clear "value side" at +325 even though his official pick is Bonfim. Lurato stressed that Thompson’s karate-based point-fighting style still works in the big cage because Bonfim must spend valuable time "downloading data" on Wonderboy’s hopping in-and-out kicks and side-on stance. If Bonfim fails to get early takedowns, Lurato expects Thompson to rack up volume and potentially steal a split decision. He refuses to lay –450 on a favorite who has never had to solve 15 minutes of elite movement and urged listeners not to anchor parlays with Bonfim. In his words, "I would not be shocked if Wonderboy won a split here."