Billy Ward is grabbing Tabatha Ricci at +170 because he rates the matchup with Amanda Ribas as a true pick’em. Both are 30-32-year-old Brazilians holding black belts in both Judo and BJJ, each throws high volume but with sub-40% accuracy. Ward expects most exchanges to be scrambles where Ricci’s Judo base lets her consolidate top position while Ribas will fish off her back. On the feet Ricci’s output has climbed since training with pro boxer Callum Walsh, and Ward thinks simply marching forward, yelling on combos, can steal narrow rounds. Given near-identical skill sets in a fight heavily juiced to go 15 minutes, Ward wants the plus-money side every time.

Matty Betss is taking Tabitha Ricci by decision at +200, calling the Ribas–Ricci matchup a true coin-flip that the market has mis-priced. He believes both women are well-rounded with similar judo and BJJ foundations, but expects neither to dominate on the mat because Ribas sports an 85 % takedown-defense rate while Ricci’s best weapon is top-control. Betss highlighted Ribas’ tendency to chase submissions and end up on bottom, something Ricci can exploit for control time. Meanwhile, striking metrics favor Ribas early, yet Ricci’s gas tank and incremental improvements each camp keep things tight. Because nearly all the recent fights for both women have hit the cards, Betss wants the plus-money side in what he pegs as a 50-50 split-decision type fight.

Sniper ultimately selected Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci as his kill-shot play, arguing that her sub-$7,600 salary paired with projected sub-15 % ownership creates perfect GPP leverage on a card where most popular dogs are already steamed. He admitted Ricci lacks nuclear finishing equity but pointed out that her 71 % takedown defense and clinch strength could flip control-time on Amanda Ribas and grind out a decision that pays off with 10× value. Even in defeat Ricci’s pace—more than four significant strikes landed per minute plus cage time—can still return 35–45 DK points, a serviceable floor that lets users jam multiple 9 K favorites. With few underdogs offering both a viable win path and depressed ownership, Sniper will be overweight Ricci across large-field tournaments while keeping Bryce Mitchell as an honorable-mention pivot for lineup diversification.

Sniper leaned toward Tabatha Ricci because the betting line and $7,600 salary underrate what he views as a pick-’em matchup. He expects the bout to drift into clinch realms where Ricci’s physical strength and dirty-boxing can neutralize Ribas’ range striking. Sniper believes Ricci will stuff enough takedowns—she sports 71 % defensive wrestling—to force fence work, score control-time, and land short shots that win rounds. Even if she loses, a decision defeat still projects 30-40 DK points, which is serviceable at sub-$8K in cash builds. Conversely, Sniper sees little upside in paying $8.6K for Ribas because her most realistic win condition is a low-output decision lacking bonus scoring. He plans to be overweight on Ricci in both cash and GPP formats.

Michael Lurato advised taking the plus-money stab on Tabitha Ricci by decision. He framed the matchup as an almost coin-flip between two solid but clearly non-elite strawweights and argued that, in women’s MMA, a fight this tight should default to the underdog. Lurato questioned Amanda Ribas’s "seamless" skill-set, noting she still makes defensive mistakes in pocket exchanges and can be bullied off her preferred range. Ricci, meanwhile, has quietly sharpened her boxing while dating Irish prospect Callum Walsh—Lurato wonders how much sparring and footwork tutelage she is getting from a legit pro boxer. Ricci’s jab-and-high-kick entries are the key to setting up her wrestling and clinch trips, and Lurato expects those optics to resonate with judges in the larger Abu Dhabi cage. Because both women are durable and tend to win on minutes, he prefers the dog money line or the Ricci-by-decision prop rather than risk anything on Ribas as a slight favorite.

Guru reluctantly sided with Tabatha Ricci to edge Amanda Ribas via yet another controversial 29-28. He argues judges consistently gift Ricci close fights – citing perceived robbery wins over Angela Hill and Tecia Torres – and expects that trend to continue. Ribas’ durability is also a worry after multiple stoppage losses and a recent submission defeat to Mackenzie Dern. Even if Ribas lands takedowns, Guru doubts she can keep top control long enough, while Ricci’s sporadic bursts will impress the scorekeepers. Bottom line: in a likely split decision, the ‘industry plant’ Ricci again gets her hand raised.

TheWeasle projected Tabatha Ricci to out-grapple the larger Amanda Ribas and take a unanimous decision at strawweight. Ribas owns the better footwork, size and volume kickboxing, but Ricci’s judo black belt and smothering top control give her the single biggest skill edge in the matchup. He expects Ricci to explode into double-ups or clinch trips off cage-cutting blitzes, then bank control time once she is on top. While Ribas can land jabs and push kicks in open space, Ricci’s speed advantage on entries plus superior positional grappling should tilt round scoring. Bet recommendation: Ricci by decision or money-line parlay piece.

Jeff Fox tapped Tabatha Ricci as his preferred underdog play, believing her wrestling volume can flip the script on Amanda Ribas. Fox noted that Ricci is averaging 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has converted 60 % of her attempts in her last two bouts. He thinks those entries will keep Ribas from settling into her distance-kickboxing rhythm and could rack up control time that sways judges on a card with plenty of close rounds expected. With Ricci sitting at plus money, Fox argued the takedown upside alone makes her worth a swing on both the money-line and smaller parlays.