Jim Malaro echoed Lang’s stance but added his own nuance: Moises only struggles when the opponent carries one-shot dynamite—examples being Joel Alvarez or Ludovit Klein. Jared Gordon lacks that fight-ending power, making this a stylistic lay-up for Moises, who, according to Malaro, now splits time at the data-driven "Fighting Nerds" camp. He likes Moises’ snappy jab-low-kick combinations and sees a clear path to either club-and-sub or top-control decision once the bout hits the mat. Malaro will let the line keep steaming toward Gordon, then fire on Moises and consider the submission prop if he confirms that the "Fighting Nerds" corner will be present on fight night.

Andy Lang is jumping on Thiago Moises as an underdog, arguing the market’s fascination with Jared Gordon is misplaced. Lang ran through Gordon’s recent resume—decision losses to Nasrat Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett plus low-leverage wins over 40-year-old Mark O. Madsen and roster casualty Leonardo Santos—and sees nothing that justifies the current price. Conversely, Moises looked revitalized against Trey Ogden after linking up with a new coaching staff, ripping calf kicks and mixing takedowns with far crisper boxing than we saw in his lethargic loss to Ludovit Klein. Lang believes those low kicks will disrupt Gordon’s forward-clinch style, while Moises’ superior submission arsenal gives him the grappling safety valve. He plans to verify Moises’ conditioning at Friday weigh-ins but expects to bet the moneyline and sprinkle the sub prop if the Brazilian looks anything like he did last time out.

Matty Betss initially saw Moises-Gordon as a dead-even pick-em, but after the market drifted to +120 on Thiago Moises, he considers the Brazilian the buy-low side. Moises has faced a far tougher schedule—sharing the cage with Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush—and showed improvement in a competitive bout with Ludovit Klein. Betss still respects Gordon’s granite cardio and chain wrestling but doubts he can consistently ground a BJJ black belt who fires off leg kicks and knees from the clinch. The handicap hinges on early control time: if Moises racks up cage minutes and pockets round one, Betss thinks Gordon’s trademark late surge will not be enough. With plus money now available, Betss is leaning Moises on the moneyline and will use “fight goes distance” as a parlay piece given both men’s durability.

Michael Lurato reluctantly sided with Thiago Moises, arguing the Brazilian possesses the broader skill set—elite grappling, hard calf kicks, and a cleaner striking arsenal—but warned that backing him requires “closing your eyes and hoping he actually follows the right game plan.” Lurato conceded Moises often sabotages himself by fighting off the back foot with minimal output, yet maintained that if Moises decides to use his takedowns and rear-side counters he should neutralize Gordon’s pressure in the smaller Apex cage. He sees Gordon’s willingness to over-pursue after landing—combined with a history of finding bad scrambles—as openings for Moises to hit reactive shots or snatch a leg-lock. Because Moises’ decisions frequently frustrate bettors, Lurato did not recommend laying the current juice but thinks the favorite still wins more often thanks to superior finishing upside on the mat and heavier single-strike power.

Monk cautioned against chasing Moises simply because he’s cheap. In his view, the Brazilian’s DraftKings average (87) is propped up by a single 125-point outlier, and unless he secures a first-round submission he rarely tops 75. Gordon absorbs nearly six strikes a minute yet still logs 100 DK points in decisions thanks to pace, meaning Moises must either blitz early or watch his value evaporate. Monk will sprinkle both sides in large-field GPPs but plans to be underweight on Moises relative to the field, preferring to target fighters with more reliable round-to-round output.

Sniper leaned toward Thiago Moises in the mid-range pick’em, arguing the Brazilian carries the far higher ceiling. Moises has faced a murderers’ row—Islam Makhachev, Benoit Saint-Denis, Joel Alvarez—and still flashes early-finish potential through slick leg-lock entries and back-takes. Sniper noted Gordon’s motivation has wavered in past dog-fights and that Moises is the superior grappler if he chooses to wrestle. With little else to love in the $8K range, Sniper will prioritize Moises exposure in GPPs and even sprinkle him in cash, banking on a submission or dominant top-control path to 95+ DK points.

Kunath advised passing the near-Pick’em moneyline if you hate sweat but, if forced, betting Thiago Moises by decision. Moises has a knack for being ‘losing until he wins’—heel-hooking Michael Johnson after dropping round one, rallying when Trey Ogden gassed—but Kunath thinks this matchup favors him from the jump. Gordon plants heavy on his lead leg, which sets up Moises’ trademark calf kicks. Moises is training at American Top Team alongside Grant Dawson, the last man to dominate and submit Gordon; Kunath expects ATT to replicate that blueprint if needed. Still, the likely script is Moises edges minutes: damage with low kicks, mix in back-takes during scrambles, and bank rounds while avoiding Gordon’s grind. Because Moises averages just 0.3 subs per 15 minutes and Gordon owns solid submission defense outside the Dawson fight, Kunath projects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard rather than a finish.