Jim Malaro predicted Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira to weather Kyler Phillips’ trademark Round-1 explosion and steal the fight on the cards. Malaro’s core thesis: Phillips is a quarter-mile dragster with only half a gallon in the tank—electrifying for five minutes, then out of gas. He cited Phillips’ loss to Rob Font, where the Arizonan visibly cratered after a hot start, and noted Phillips still relies on single flashy techniques rather than efficient combinations. By contrast, Oliveira has shown both durability and late-fight toughness: surviving a shattered shin to finish Ricky Simon and beating Saeed Nurmagomedov while nursing torn rib cartilage. At just 29, the Brazilian is 22-3, has already knocked out four Russians and is openly calling for Umar Nurmagomedov. Malaro expects Oliveira’s defensive wrestling to keep rounds two and three upright, where he will land "the bigger, cleaner shots" and bank optics with judges still valuing late-round work. Recommended wager: Oliveira by decision at plus money, with live-betting interest after the inevitable Phillips Round-1 surge.

Dan Tom laid –148 on Vinicius “Lock Dog” Oliveira and made him a 2.5-unit play, arguing the Brazilian’s relentless pressure and eye-catching power moments win over both judges and bettors. Tom acknowledged Phillips’s tendency to pile up minutes early, but pointed to a well-documented cardio dip that cost the American against Said Nurmagomedov and nearly cost him versus Marcelo Rojo. Oliveira, by contrast, has repeatedly passed third-round gut checks—gutting out a rib injury in the Nurmagomedov fight and surviving short-notice opponent switches while still finishing strong. Tom praised Oliveira’s polished camp work, tight pocket vision, and willingness to “fight for your money,” noting that those spurts of heavy offense line up with how judges like Ben Cartlidge weigh rounds. He expects Phillips to win Round 1, but sees Oliveira’s jab-into-combos, wrist-control scrambles, and nonstop forward motion flipping momentum by the midpoint. With books hanging –155 on Oliveira and the over 2.5 at –200, Tom took the moneyline and hinted at parlaying the over, projecting a 29-28 or late-finish scenario that cashes for Lock Dog backers.

Kunath leaned toward Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira as a slight betting favorite, saying the Brazilian’s willingness to make every exchange ugly is kryptonite for Kyler Phillips’ slick, space-dependent style. Phillips looks elite only when allowed to operate at kickboxing range, but he historically slows after the first round—his significant-strike rate plunges from 5.7 per minute in Round 1 to 3.1 in Round 3. Oliveira, already boasting 25 pro bouts at age 29, routinely pushes 100+ significant-strike attempts and will test Phillips’ cardio by crowding him with body work and heavy hooks. Kunath added that Oliveira has never been knocked out, whereas Phillips’ output nosedives once he senses fatigue. He projected that over three rounds Oliveira lands the cleaner, harder shots, steals momentum with late flurries, and wins a competitive but deserved decision. The recommendation is Oliveira money line and a small sprinkle on Oliveira by decision at plus money.

Jeff Fox joined Vreeland on the Oliveira side, noting that the Brazilian’s statistical profile and current momentum outweigh the small price gap. Oliveira rides a five-fight winning streak (3-0 in the UFC) and sports a massive 18-of-22 finish rate with a +2.0 sig-strike differential per minute. Phillips, by contrast, is only 3-1 in his last four and has shown cardio erosion late, most recently fading to Rob Font. Fox pointed out that Oliveira has never been finished in the UFC, so Phillips’ usual bailout knockouts are unlikely. With Phillips sitting at +135 and Oliveira only –139, Fox prefers the fighter delivering heavier damage, higher pace, and cleaner form, concluding that bettors should either back Oliveira outright or pass on the bout.

Gumby Vreeland said the –139 favorite Vinicius “Lock Dog” Oliveira is the side because Kyler Phillips remains an unreliable minute-winner. Vreeland reminded listeners that Phillips faded badly versus Rob Font and even lost a decision to Raulian Paiva after gassing, evidence that his fight-to-fight mentality and cardio swing wildly. While Phillips will need takedowns to mute Oliveira’s volume, Vreeland doubts his top control—Phillips historically gives opponents space to stand and was reversed multiple times in the Paiva bout. Conversely, Oliveira pushes a berserker pace, averaging 5.0 significant strikes landed per minute and carrying knockout power that has produced 16 KOs in 22 wins. Vreeland trusts Oliveira’s pressure boxing and superior gas tank to drown Phillips over 15 minutes and sees virtually no chance the Brazilian gets iced, making the modest chalk worth laying.

Bedtime MMA called a "Vinicius Oliveira masterclass" against Kyler Phillips. He cited Oliveira’s recent wins over Ricky Simon and Said Nurmagomedov, praising his well-rounded game and cardio. Phillips, meanwhile, was criticized for a loss to Rob Font and for cardio lapses in later rounds. The tout expects Oliveira to pressure early, mix in takedowns once Phillips fades, and either take a wide decision or find a late finish. He framed Oliveira as a potential bantamweight contender and a strong straight bet or parlay anchor at what he anticipates will be a modest favorite price.