David Fernandez pointed to Dimers’ 10,000-simulation projection that has the Ravens winning 28-21, a 49-point total that lands well below the 51.5 line. The model assigns just a 44% chance of the Over hitting, giving the Under a 56% edge—roughly –127 fair odds against the current –110 price. Fernandez noted that both offenses have played at a more methodical pace of late and that Lamar Jackson is coming off a three-game absence, factors he believes will tamp down the shoot-out narrative. He tagged Under 51.5 as his best bet for Thursday Night Football.

David Fernandez highlighted Dimers.com's 10,000-run simulation that projects a 29-19 Buffalo victory and assigns a 53.5% chance the game finishes under the 49.5 total. With the Bills laying 12.5 at home and carrying an 83% win probability, Fernandez expects Buffalo's defense to keep Miami in check while a likely front-running game script drains clock. Because the Under is priced at just -104, he labeled it the best value on the board, even ahead of a modest model edge on Miami +12.5.