Kunath said Rizvan Kuniev is live for a first- or second-round knockout because Curtis Blaydes no longer looks like the grind-heavy wrestler we once feared. He rattled off Blaydes’ recent run: slept by Derrick Lewis, freak-injury win over Tom Aspinall that was exposed in the rematch, completely controlled by Jailton Almeida in Round 1 before Almeida gassed, then finished twice in his last three outings. Kunath noted Blaydes has absorbed two KOs and an extended top-control beating in that three-fight sample and hasn’t produced the 6-plus takedown, heavy-elbow game since 2022. He expects the 33-year-old to be vulnerable in the clinch and doubts his cardio at Azerbaijan altitude. Kunath likes Kuniev’s power shots early, called a live-bet hedge on Blaydes after Round 1 only if Kuniev slows, and locked in Kuniev by KO at plus money for the official card.

Kunath doubled-down on his earlier live-dog call but got more specific, saying Rizvan Kuniev is worth a knockout stab in Rounds 1-2 against Curtis Blaydes. He argued Blaydes is mired in an identity crisis at age 34, electing to strike instead of wrestle and paying with two KOs in his last three. Even the lone Almeida win involved zero offensive success—Almeida simply gassed and face-planted on a desperate shot. Kunath listed Blaydes’ recent résumé (knocked out by Pavlovich and Lewis, controlled by Almeida, freak injury versus Aspinall, shallow win over chinny Chris Daukaus) to conclude the six-takedown ground-and-pound Blaydes of old is gone. Kuniev’s Contender Series footage—stubborn clinch reversals and the vicious elbow KO right before the horn—matches perfectly with a heavyweight who now hangs out in the pocket. Kunath expects Kuniev to hurt Blaydes in tight, finish inside the first ten minutes, and recommends sprinkling both the moneyline and KO prop while maybe looking for a live hedge on Blaydes after Round 1 if Kuniev empties the tank early.

After a deeper tape dive, Kunath flipped from the safe pick to labeling Rizvan Kuniev a live underdog versus Curtis Blaydes. He cited Kuniev’s Contender Series performance—sticky takedown defense, constant forward pressure, savvy fence reversals, and a nasty clinch elbow knockout—as skills tailor-made to trouble Blaydes’ grind-heavy style. Blaydes, now 34 with heavy mileage, is experiencing an “identity crisis,” striking more than wrestling and paying for it with KO losses in two of his last three (to Sergei Pavlovich and Derrick Lewis). Kunath emphasized that while only huge punchers have historically slept Blaydes, Kuniev’s clinch offense can exploit the moments Blaydes gives ground attempting entries. Because Kuniev enters with nothing to lose, the mental pressure shifts to Blaydes, making the debutant worth sprinkling on the moneyline and possibly inside-the-distance props.