Kenny G said the only number that makes sense in this coin-flip matchup is OVER 9. He trusts neither bullpen—Arizona’s relief corps has been a “nightmare” for weeks while the Angels drag an ERA north of 8.00—and he pointed out that both clubs trend to high-scoring games in these splits (Los Angeles 23-22 and a pronounced over team at home; Arizona slightly over .500 to the over on the road). Offensively the Diamondbacks still sit 5th in runs and 11th in batting average, so they can punish any slip-ups, and Jose Soriano’s boom-or-bust profile (seven shutout innings two starts ago, then rocked by Texas) only adds volatility. Meanwhile Arizona’s unnamed starter can flash competence yet invariably hands things to that leaky pen. The Angels lineup is streaky—17th in runs, 26th in average/OBP—but Kenny figures even a couple of crooked innings push this total past nine. Because both starters are capable of six decent frames he is not labeling it a max play, but he would bet the full-game over at 9 and would still nibble at 9.5 if the market ticks up.

Kenny G said the best look in Diamondbacks–Angels is the full-game over 8.5. Zac Gallen has caught fire with back-to-back gems against the Giants and Padres, yet still owns a 5.15 ERA and works in front of an Arizona bullpen flirting with a 5.00 mark. The D-backs mash—they’re 5th in runs and 4th in slugging—and have won four of Gallen’s last five starts by simply outscoring opponents. Los Angeles counters with Yusei Kikuchi (3-6, 3.02) who has yielded 10 runs in his last 11 innings and is backed by one of MLB’s three worst relief units. The Angels’ bats are middling overall (17th in runs) but rank 11th in slugging and have scored at least five in three of their past five. With both clubs basically .500 in their venue splits and the line a coin-flip at –110 each way, Kenny prefers attacking a total that can cash even if one starter settles in, because the bullpens "will not hold up" once the offenses flip the order a second time.