Matty Betss shifted his approach on the Benoit Saint-Denis fight, saying the smartest wager is the Under 1.5 rounds at –160 (opened –170). He still expects Saint-Denis to finish— the French commando averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and has ended four of five UFC wins inside seven minutes— but after re-watching tape he decided the KO/Sub split is basically 50-50. Saint-Denis could club the regional call-up on the feet with body- and leg-kick counters or maul him with ground-and-pound after an early trip; either way Betss believes the mismatch resolves quickly. “If this gets past 7-and-a-half, something went wrong for BSD,” he said, advising bettors to skip individual finish props unless the submission line is –120 or better or the KO is +150 or longer because the total captures every early-finish path at a similar price.

Matty Betss said he is passing on the −1,100 money-line and hunting Benoit Saint-Denis by submission instead. After watching tape on Kyle — a southpaw who whips body- and head-kicks but was cut from the UFC and has since starch-padded three regional cans in round one — Betss concluded that the skill gap on the mat is gigantic. Saint-Denis averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, converts at a 54 % clip and has finished four of his five UFC wins by choke or neck crank. Betss expects BSD to duck the kicks, chain-wrestle, hit an early trip and lock up the neck within the first seven minutes. He plans to fire on the sub prop if it opens at plus money, play a small Round-1/Saint-Denis finish ladder and absolutely will not parlay the inflated money-line because it “adds nothing but heartache.”

Bedtime MMA said Benoit Saint Denis’ momentum will restart at UFC 315 because Joel Alvarez has pulled out and the promotion will "bring in someone outside of the UFC or some unranked random guy" on short notice. He noted that Saint Denis is good enough to maul that level of opposition, reminding listeners that BSD one-punched Matt Frevola while only truly elite lightweights such as Faras Ziam and Terrance McKinney have produced similar highlights. The tout believes Saint Denis’ pressure grappling and opportunistic submissions will overwhelm any late-call replacement, making BSD a straight-bet and inside-the-distance target even though he is, in Bedtime’s words, "nowhere near top-15 level."